Israel’s chareidi political world is facing one of its most dramatic upheavals in years as the battle over the draft law threatens to fracture the longstanding alliance between the chareidi parties and the right-wing bloc led by Prime Minister Binyomin Netanyahu.

In a wide-ranging interview on Kikar FM, “Bavli” political commentator Itzeleh Katzburg spoke with Eli Guthelf about the growing tensions inside the coalition, the possibility of new political alliances, and whether chareidi parties would ultimately be willing to sit alongside secular or left-wing politicians in exchange for preserving exemptions for yeshiva bochurim.

Even Israelis who normally avoid politics, Katzburg said, are finding it difficult to ignore the mounting pressure and uncertainty surrounding the current crisis.

At the center of the turmoil is a dramatic letter issued by Rav Dov Landau, which many interpreted as effectively dissolving the traditional “right-wing bloc” partnership between chareidi parties and Netanyahu.

For years, parties such as Shas and Degel HaTorah largely moved in lockstep with Likud and the broader right-wing coalition.

But the ongoing fight over the draft law has significantly strained those relationships.

Netanyahu himself acknowledged at the opening of the Knesset summer session that the coalition currently lacks enough votes to pass a draft law acceptable to the chareidi parties.

The response from the chareidi political world was swift — though not unified.

According to Katzburg, Degel HaTorah has increasingly directed blame squarely at Netanyahu.

He pointed to unusual interviews and sharply worded articles published in Yated Ne’eman, including comments from MK Moshe Gafni signaling that Degel HaTorah no longer feels bound to the right-wing bloc and may even consider future cooperation with longtime political rivals such as Avigdor Lieberman and Yair Lapid.

Shas, however, has taken a very different approach.

While continuing to fight against military conscription of yeshiva students, Shas has publicly maintained its commitment to Likud and the right-wing camp.

Its party newspaper, HaDerech, has largely directed criticism toward military and bureaucratic officials rather than Netanyahu himself.

Katzburg argued that the divide stems largely from electoral strategy.

According to him, Degel HaTorah appeals primarily to a more traditional yeshiva-oriented electorate and therefore has greater flexibility to break politically with the right.

Shas, by contrast, depends heavily on traditional and peripheral voters who strongly support Netanyahu even if they are less aligned with the chareidi position on military service.

“Shas relies on a pool of traditional, peripheral voters who may want to see chareidim enlist, but what matters most to them is Bibi,” Katzburg explained. “If Shas declares today that it is severing ties with the right-wing bloc, it could lose between two and four mandates.”

As a result, Katzburg said, chareidi politicians are often sending different messages to different audiences.

Internally, rabbinic leaders continue firmly opposing any cooperation with military draft efforts, while publicly some politicians adopt softer language in broader Israeli media so as not to alienate traditional right-wing supporters.

The interview also explored the growing political battle over the timing of Israel’s next election.

According to Katzburg, Shas is pushing strategically for elections to take place on the Fast of Gedaliah, shortly after Rosh Hashanah during the height of Selichos season.

He argued that Shas believes elections during that period could energize large numbers of traditional voters visiting the Kosel for Selichos.

At the same time, such timing could significantly hurt right-wing turnout because thousands of Breslover chassidim and right-wing voters would still be returning from Uman and unable to vote.

Katzburg suggested that Degel HaTorah is less concerned about weakening the right-wing bloc because many in the Litvishe chareidi camp increasingly believe the alliance with the right has effectively collapsed anyway.

Toward the end of the interview, the discussion turned to perhaps the most explosive question of all: whether chareidi parties would truly be willing to sit in a coalition alongside left-wing figures such as Yair Golan or openly secular activists if it guaranteed passage of a draft exemption law.

Katzburg answered unequivocally that they would.

“We will swallow that frog. We are not Zionists and we have no connection to this state and this government. We play the game in order to preserve the Torah world. If they promise us ‘Yavneh and its sages’ (an exemption from military service for yeshiva students), as far as we are concerned the minister of religion can be Naor Narkis or a Reform rabbi. The Knesset is full of clowns anyway.”

According to Katzburg, when the decisive political moment arrives, even left-wing leaders such as Yair Golan may suddenly display surprising “pragmatism” on the issue of equal military service if it enables them to topple Netanyahu and form a government.

The interview painted a picture of a rapidly shifting chareidi political landscape, where the once-solid partnership with the Israeli right may be giving way to a new political reality centered almost entirely around preserving the yeshiva world and preventing the military draft of Torah students.

{Matzav.com}