Yeshiva World News4 hours agoDespite exit polls indicating that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc may fall short of the 61 Knesset seats needed to form a government, senior Likud officials remain confident that Netanyahu could ultimately secure another term as prime minister.
According to a report by Channel 14 political correspondent Mati Tuchfeld, Likud officials believe President Isaac Herzog may task Netanyahu with forming the next government, even if his bloc fails to win an outright majority.
The reasoning is that the opposition parties remain deeply divided, with no single candidate appearing capable of securing recommendations from 61 Knesset members. Meanwhile, Likud is projected to remain the largest individual party by a considerable margin.
Exit polls currently place Netanyahu’s bloc at between 52 and 60 seats, depending on the television network. However, Likud officials point to Netanyahu’s history of overcoming seemingly impossible political circumstances, including his ability to expand parliamentary support beyond his original bloc.
Three potential scenarios are reportedly under consideration.
The first involves forming a national unity government with former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot and his Yashar party. Such an arrangement could provide Netanyahu with the additional seats necessary to establish a governing coalition, although significant political disagreements would need to be resolved.
A second possibility involves bringing either Naftali Bennett or Avigdor Lieberman into a Netanyahu-led coalition. Both have been political rivals of the prime minister, making such an arrangement difficult, but the election results could create pressure for new political alliances.
The third scenario would involve persuading individual opposition lawmakers to break ranks and join Netanyahu’s coalition, potentially providing the seats needed to reach the 61-member threshold.
Another possibility is a prolonged political deadlock, particularly if Netanyahu’s bloc finishes with approximately 59 seats. Such a result would leave him just short of a majority while potentially preventing the opposition from forming an alternative government.
Under that scenario, Israel could face weeks of coalition negotiations, political maneuvering and potentially another round of elections if no candidate succeeds in assembling a majority.
Importantly, being the largest party does not automatically guarantee Netanyahu the mandate to form a government. President Herzog must consult with the elected factions before deciding which Knesset member has the best chance of establishing a coalition.
For now, the exit polls suggest that neither political camp has a clear path to power.
But as Likud officials are emphasizing, falling short of 61 seats on election night does not necessarily mean Netanyahu’s time as prime minister is coming to an end.
(YWN World Headquarters – NYC)
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Yeshiva World NewsISRAEL ELECTION UPDATE: With 50.1% of votes counted, the latest results show Likud with 27 seats, Yashar with 21, and United Torah Judaism rising to 9.
Bloc Breakdown: Netanyahu's Right-Wing Bloc: 56 seats
Eisenkot's Opposition Bloc: 49 seats
Arab Parties: 15 seats
The Democrats hold 9 seats, while Beyachad and the Joint List have 11 each. Israel Beiteinu has 8, Shas and Otzma Yehudit have 7 each, Religious Zionism has 6, and Ra'am has 4.
Matzav4 hours agoA special election-day exit poll conducted by the Chareidi news outlet Kikar HaShabbat found that 80% of Chareidi voters supported the two established Chareidi parties, United Torah Judaism and Shas, while alternative parties attracted smaller but potentially significant shares of the vote.
The survey, conducted Tuesday, October 27, in Chareidi communities, offered a rare look at voting patterns within the Chareidi sector itself, rather than the nationwide distribution of Knesset seats. According to the findings, United Torah Judaism received 48% of the Chareidi vote, followed by Shas with 32%.
The newly formed HaTzibbur HaChareidi party, associated with Leitner, received 7%, making it the largest alternative to the two traditional Chareidi factions among respondents. Otzma Yehudit, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, followed with 5%, while the Tzeva Shachor (Black Color) party received 2%.
Religious Zionism also drew 2% of the Chareidi vote, according to the survey. Likud and Noam LeYisrael each received 1%, while parties belonging to the anti-Netanyahu political camp collectively attracted just 2%.
The results suggest that despite a contentious election campaign marked by disputes over military conscription, Chareidi political representation, and the emergence of alternative parties, the overwhelming majority of surveyed Chareidi voters continued to support Shas and United Torah Judaism.
At the same time, the combined 9% support recorded for HaTzibbur HaChareidi and Tzeva Shachor points to a measurable constituency willing to vote outside the established Chareidi party framework.
The survey’s findings are particularly noteworthy because the election campaign featured growing debate over whether the traditional Chareidi parties could retain their longstanding electoral support amid disagreements over their handling of the draft issue and other matters affecting the Chareidi community.
The Kikar HaShabbat survey also indicated that support for non-Chareidi right-wing parties was considerably greater than support for parties associated with the anti-Netanyahu camp. Otzma Yehudit, Religious Zionism, Likud, and Noam LeYisrael together accounted for 9% of respondents, compared with the 2% who supported parties in the opposing political bloc.
These figures describe voting preferences within the surveyed Chareidi population and should not be confused with the nationwide vote shares of the respective parties or their projected Knesset representation.
Kikar HaShabbat described the project as the first exit poll of its kind undertaken by a Chareidi news organization, designed specifically to measure how Chareidi voters divided their support among competing parties.
The survey was conducted through specially designated exit-poll stations at polling locations in Bnei Brak, Yerushalayim, and Beit Shemesh, supplemented by an online survey. The project was conducted in conjunction with the research organization Super Data.
Unlike conventional pre-election opinion polls, which ask respondents how they intend to vote, exit polls seek information from individuals who have already cast their ballots. Participating voters are typically asked to reproduce their selections anonymously, allowing researchers to estimate voting patterns before the official count is completed.
The researchers then analyze the responses, applying statistical adjustments intended to account for differences in turnout, geographic representation, and the demographic composition of participating voters.
The accuracy of such surveys depends heavily on the selection of polling locations and the willingness of different groups of voters to participate. Even a large number of responses can produce a misleading picture if certain communities or political constituencies are overrepresented.
Kikar HaShabbat acknowledged several potential sources of error, including sampling fluctuations, differences in participation rates among supporters of competing parties, and the possibility that voters might not accurately disclose their selections.
The timing of responses can also influence the results. If voters arriving during the final hours of polling differ politically from those who cast their ballots earlier, preliminary estimates may not fully reflect the final distribution.
The survey’s combination of physical polling locations and online participation introduces another consideration, since internet-based respondents may differ from voters who participate at designated exit-poll stations. The published report did not provide a sample size or margin of error, making it difficult to independently assess the precision of the individual percentages.
The findings also do not establish how many Knesset seats the smaller parties will receive. A party’s share of the Chareidi vote is different from its share of all votes cast nationwide, and parties must cross Israel’s electoral threshold to qualify for parliamentary representation.
That distinction is especially important for HaTzibbur HaChareidi and Tzeva Shachor. Although the two parties together attracted 9% of respondents in the Chareidi-focused survey, their ability to enter the Knesset depends on their nationwide results rather than their support within the Chareidi sector alone.
For Shas and United Torah Judaism, the findings indicate continued support among the voters surveyed, even as the emergence of competing Chareidi lists introduces additional questions about the future distribution of the community’s political vote.
The final official results will determine whether the support recorded by the smaller parties translates into parliamentary representation and whether the traditional Chareidi factions retain the electoral strength suggested by the exit poll.
