LAREDO, Texas — Cargo trucks line up to cross the U.S.-Mexico border, a key route for North American trade under the USMCA.

The United States, Mexico, and Canada will hold their first three-way meeting on July 1 to begin the formal review of the USMCA trade pact, Mexico’s Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard announced Thursday, June 18, in a video posted to social media. Canadian officials confirmed the trilateral session on Saturday.

The virtual meeting marks the start of the agreement’s first scheduled six-year review, a checkpoint built into the deal when it took effect on July 1, 2020. Under the pact, July 1 is the date the three governments are meant to signal whether they want to extend it past its 2036 expiration.

The timing is tense. President Donald Trump, who signed the original deal during his first term, said Wednesday he is not a fan of the agreement and would “rather have it terminated.” He suggested he would prefer it expire immediately rather than run another decade, reviving the uncertainty that has hung over North American trade since his return to office.

Canada has taken the opposite stance. On June 1, Canadian Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc formally asked the United States and Mexico to renew the agreement for another 16 years, describing it as highly valuable to all three countries while acknowledging Washington may want changes.

The stakes for business are enormous. The USMCA governs one of the world’s largest trade zones, covering more than 500 million people. Mexico and Canada are now the top two U.S. trading partners, and U.S. exports of goods and services to the two countries have risen 56% since 2020. Autos, agriculture, and manufacturing are especially tied to the agreement’s rules.

Don’t expect everything settled at once. Ebrard cautioned that not all issues will be worked out by July 1, and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has said Washington will not offer a simple “rubberstamp” renewal. Greer has signaled the United States wants changes — including tighter rules on where products are made — before agreeing to extend the deal.

Until now, the three countries have mostly met one-on-one. The United States and Mexico have held bilateral talks to clear a long list of American concerns, while Canada held off on broader engagement until formal consultations began. The July 1 session brings all three to the same table for the first time in this round.

For companies with North American supply chains, the review is mostly about certainty. Automakers, parts suppliers, farmers, and manufacturers plan investments years ahead and need to know the rules will hold. A smooth review pointing toward renewal would calm nerves. A drawn-out fight — or follow-through on Trump’s termination talk — would inject fresh risk into cross-border operations.

The structure of the deal offers some cushion. Even if the three governments fail to agree on July 1, the USMCA does not end. It stays in force, with annual reviews continuing for up to a decade until 2036, giving the parties time to reach a deal before the pact would actually terminate.

Key sticking points are already in view. The United States wants to tighten rules of origin — the formulas that determine how much of a product must be made in North America to qualify for duty-free treatment — and has pressed Mexico on issues from farm exports to Chinese investment routed through Mexican factories. Canada faces U.S. complaints over access to its dairy market.

What happens next is the meeting itself, followed by what could be months of negotiation. The July 1 session sets the agenda rather than settling it, and the real test will be whether the three sides can narrow their differences in the talks that follow.

The bigger picture is that stable trade rules across North America help keep prices predictable for businesses and consumers and underpin millions of jobs tied to cross-border commerce. For business owners, workers, and investors across the continent, July 1 is the opening move in a high-stakes negotiation over the future of the region’s trade.

JBizNews Desk | New York
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