SpaceX shares fell to an all-time low of $132.15 on Wednesday, July 15, dropping below the $135 price the company sold stock to investors at last month — the first time the shares have traded under their offering price since Space Exploration Technologies Corp. went public on the Nasdaq.

It was the fourth straight losing session. The stock fell as much as 2.9 percent before clawing back to roughly $134.85 by early afternoon, still below the IPO price. Anyone who bought at the offering is now underwater for the first time since trading began.

The June offering raised a record $86 billion, the largest initial public offering in history, and made founder Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire. Shares opened their first day at $150, climbed to an all-time high of $225.64 on June 16, and have been under pressure ever since. From that peak, the stock has fallen roughly 40 percent.

What broke

Three factors have combined to pressure the shares.

The first is index mechanics. SpaceX joined the Nasdaq-100 last week under a revised eligibility rule allowing newly public companies to enter after just 15 trading days. That attracted billions of dollars in passive buying from index funds and ETFs, but the stock slipped below its $150 first-trade price almost immediately afterward. Index inclusion brings automatic buyers—but it also brings automatic sellers.

The second is the balance sheet. Starlink delivered a strong first quarter with 10.3 million subscribers and $1.2 billion in operating profit. However, SpaceX reported a 2025 GAAP operating loss of $2.59 billion, while first-quarter 2026 operating losses widened to $1.94 billion as capital expenditures reached $10.1 billion. Just weeks after raising a record amount through its IPO, the company also announced plans to issue $20 billion in investment-grade unsecured bonds, a move that unsettled some equity investors.

The third is timing. SpaceX’s IPO lock-up period expires on September 2, opening the door for additional shares to enter the market.

The AI valuation question

The selloff extends beyond rockets.

Investors have increasingly been pulling back from companies valued primarily on future AI expectations rather than current earnings. On the same day SpaceX broke below its IPO price, memory-chip manufacturers suffered double-digit declines and semiconductor stocks broadly sold off.

With a market capitalization near $1.77 trillion, SpaceX trades at more than 100 times estimated revenue, a valuation that requires years of exceptional execution and continued growth.

Technical indicators also weakened. Shares are trading roughly 15 percent below their 20-day moving average, while momentum indicators suggest buyers have stepped aside after June’s rapid advance.

Wall Street remains bullish

Despite the recent decline, analyst sentiment has remained largely unchanged.

SpaceX currently carries a consensus Strong Buy rating based on 23 Buy, 4 Hold, and 1 Sell recommendations over the past three months. The average price target of $247.32 implies approximately 83 percent upside from current trading levels.

Supporters argue that SpaceX should be viewed as several businesses under one roof—including launch services, Starlink, direct-to-cell satellite communications, future data center infrastructure, and AI capabilities through its acquisition of xAI and the Grok platform.

Starship returns to center stage

Attention now shifts to Thursday, when SpaceX is scheduled to attempt the 13th test flight of Starship, with a 90-minute launch window opening at 6:45 p.m. ET from Starbase, Texas.

The mission marks the second flight of the larger Version 3 vehicle after the previous test ended unsuccessfully when an engine-sequencing issue prevented the Super Heavy booster from completing its return. Engineers have modified the ignition sequence in an effort to prevent a repeat of that failure.

Starship remains central to SpaceX’s long-term business strategy, supporting future satellite deployments, heavy-lift launches, NASA lunar missions, and eventually missions to Mars.

Why it matters

SpaceX is no longer just another technology stock.

Its inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 means millions of Americans now own the company indirectly through retirement accounts, pension funds, index funds, and exchange-traded funds. The stock’s rapid transition from private-market favorite to major public index constituent has turned its volatility into an issue affecting everyday investors as well as institutional portfolios.

JBizNews Desk | New York

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