Political strategist Roni Rimon says Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu knowingly accepted a potential political cost among moderate Likud voters by backing a series of chareidi-backed bills, calculating that preserving his alliance with the chareidi parties is more important for the coalition battles that may follow the next election.

Writing after the Knesset passed several measures sought by the chareidi parties—including the Basic Law recognizing Torah study, legislation halting the arrests of bnei yeshiva classified as draft evaders, a law permitting gender-separate higher education programs, and legislation restoring the Chief Rabbinate’s exclusive authority over kashrus certification—Rimon argued that the legislation should be viewed through both political and substantive lenses.

According to Rimon, the legislation was driven primarily by political considerations and the need for the chareidi parties to demonstrate to their constituents that they are delivering tangible results, particularly on the highly sensitive issue of military conscription.

He said the two most significant measures—the Basic Law on Torah study and the law freezing the arrests of draft-eligible bnei yeshiva—were intended to send a clear message to chareidi voters that their representatives had succeeded in addressing their community’s greatest concern.

Rimon argued that Netanyahu played a central role in advancing the legislation because he views maintaining his partnership with the chareidi parties as essential to any future governing coalition.

According to Rimon, Netanyahu wants to prevent the chareidi parties from eventually aligning themselves with opposition leaders such as Gadi Eisenkot, Naftali Bennett, or others after the next election.

At the same time, Rimon believes Netanyahu’s support for the legislation could come at a political price within his own party.

He identified moderate and liberal Likud supporters—often described as the party’s “soft Likud” voters—as the constituency most likely to object. Many of those voters, he said, have drifted toward opposition parties in recent polling because of dissatisfaction with aspects of Likud’s conduct in recent years.

Rimon suggested that Netanyahu recognizes this trend and has therefore sought to refresh the Likud slate with new outside candidates who could present the party as more moderate and liberal.

Even so, he believes the passage of the chareidi-backed legislation may make it more difficult for those former Likud voters to return.

“In my assessment,” Rimon wrote, “this week’s votes will cost Likud several seats, and Netanyahu nevertheless decided to stand with the chareidim in order to preserve the alliance.”

Rimon also discussed the High Court’s decision to suspend implementation of the law freezing the arrests of draft evaders.

He said he had predicted throughout the week that the law would quickly be blocked because it applied only to chareidim and therefore failed to meet the principle of equality.

According to Rimon, lawmakers could have avoided that outcome by drafting the legislation differently.

He suggested passing a temporary law suspending the arrests of all draft evaders, regardless of sector, until after the election.

“In that case,” he argued, “the High Court would have found it much more difficult to block the law because it would have applied equally to both chareidim and secular Israelis.”

Why lawmakers chose not to pursue that approach, he wrote, “only Hashem knows.”

Looking ahead, Rimon predicted that if Israel’s security situation remains relatively calm, the issue of chareidi enlistment will become one of the central themes of the next election campaign.

He believes opposition parties will make the issue a focal point of their campaigns, targeting what he described as one of Likud’s political vulnerabilities.

{Matzav.com}