On Monday, President Donald Trump threatened to impose 50% tariffs on most Canadian goods, raising questions about the potential impacts on homebuilders and residential construction costs.
The tariffs, which would take effect in 30 days if the United States and Canada can’t negotiate an agreement, would impact multiple materials utilized by homebuilders. However, while tariffs are already having a cumulative impact on homebuilding, this move alone may not significantly move the needle, since many Canadian construction materials are already subject to existing tariffs.
Which construction materials are and aren’t affected?
The new tariffs could affect building materials such as doors, heating and ventilation equipment, glass, cement and plywood products. The biggest impact on homebuilders appears to be cement, UBS homebuilding analyst John Lovallo told HousingWire TBD.
However, the American Cement Association estimates that Canada only accounts for about 5% of the United States’ total cement production usage, meaning that any impacts on cement could be minimal.
“It’s not all that bad, but it’s just incredibly confusing,” Lovallo said of the new tariff announcement.
The Section 232 tariffs, which Trump announced last year, are already in effect and won’t be impacted by this action. This notably includes tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber, which now averages 34.83%, although this rate could drop to 24.83% later this summer or fall.
According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), Canada supplied about 74% of the value of U.S. softwood lumber imports in 2024, meaning tariffs — or any reductions in tariffs — on Canadian lumber could have a significant impact.
Other Section 232 tariffs, which already impact Canada and other countries, include the following:
- A 50% steel and aluminum tariff that went into effect in June 2025.
- A 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper and derivative copper products, such as pipes and wires, which began in August 2025.
- A 25% tariff on imported kitchen cabinets and vanities that went into effect in October 2025. This tariff was scheduled to increase to 50% on January 1 of this year, but Trump delayed that increase to January 1, 2027.
Since the new batch of Canadian tariffs doesn’t affect these goods, the impacts of yesterday’s new levies could have minimal impacts on American homebuilders. However, the announcement only adds to the uncertainty facing the homebuilding industry.
When will the new 50% tariffs go into effect?
The new tariffs are set to go into effect 30 days from yesterday’s announcement. Trump cited Canada’s “discriminatory” trade practices against American products like automobiles, dairy products and alcohol as reasons for the new levies. The Trump administration could delay or scrap the new tariffs altogether depending on how negotiations with Canadian officials pan out.
“It’s unclear whether any of this is going to go through. I mean, this is all game theory,” Lovallo said.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney quickly said that he will intensify trade talks with Trump to negotiate a deal to avoid the tariffs. However, the premiers of Canadian provinces sent more mixed signals.
While Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe said that Canada should enter into negotiations, Ontario Premier Doug Ford said that Canada should respond “dollar for dollar” to the new tariffs. British Columbia Premier David Eby proclaimed that “there is not a chance in hell that U.S. alcohol is going back on the shelves in British Columbia.”
The ongoing tariff risk
Trump’s temporary 10% global tariffs under Section 122, implemented in February after the Supreme Court struck down his earlier IEEPA tariffs, are set to expire on Friday, July 24.
As these levies run their course, the Trump administration is gearing up to instate a new set of tariffs on dozens of countries.
After yesterday’s Canadian announcement, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said that the administration expects to instate 10% to 12.5% tariffs on 60 countries, including Mexico, the United Kingdom, Japan, Brazil, China and Australia. According to Greer, the nations that would be affected account for about 99% of America’s trade.
The possibility of future tariffs, reminiscent of the unpredictability surrounding last year’s Liberation Day announcements, adds to the uncertainty facing homebuilders.
“It certainly creates uncertainty. The biggest one that we’re concerned about is lumber,” Lovallo said. “Obviously, there are resin-based components that come in from other countries. There are plumbing fixtures and things like that that come in from China.”
The cumulative impacts of tariffs
UBS estimates that tariffs collectively add $7,913 to the cost of each home as of present day. Last year, NAHB similarly forecasted that tariffs would have a cost impact of $7,500 to $10,000 per home.
Lovallo acknowledged that quantifying the precise cost impact of tariffs is difficult, but he is confident in the overall direction of the UBS estimate.
“The numbers that we have out there, directionally we feel good about them, and I think the magnitude is in the ballpark. But it’s so hard to know for sure exactly what the impact is going to be,” he explained.
“What’s really interesting is that the [public] homebuilders are bearing very little of this. In fact, I would say they’re bearing next to none of it,” he added.
Many public builders, in recent earnings calls, have said that construction costs are actually down.
During D.R. Horton’s Q3 earnings call this morning, the company’s CFO Bill Wheat confirmed that the firm’s stick-and-brick costs were down 2% year over year.
During Lennar’s Q2 earnings call in June, Lennar said its construction costs were down 2% sequentially and 7% year over year. Compared to two years ago, the builder’s construction costs were down 13%.
Century Communities President and CEO Rob Minto, during a Q1 earnings call in April, confirmed that the company’s direct construction costs declined by 2% on a sequential basis.
During their Q1 2026 earnings call in March, executives at KB Home reported that the company’s direct construction costs per unit fell by 8% year over year.
The public builders, Lovallo said, have done a good job of leveraging their scale to negotiate prices. In a housing market that remains softer than what is preferred, the broader value chain may struggle to pass higher costs through to builders. However, suppliers could have more success doing so if housing volumes increase.
“[The public builders] wield a pretty big stick when it comes to negotiating, and they’ve been pushing back very hard. So this is getting captured or shouldered, if you will, in other parts of the housing value chain, whether it’s at the distribution level or the manufacturer level. We haven’t really seen it flow through to the [public] homebuilders,” he explained.
However, private and mid-sized regional builders, who have less scale and diminished negotiating power over suppliers and trades partners, are often at a disadvantage.
“They have far less ability to push back…it’s just getting more and more challenging to be a small private builder,” Lovallo said.
Lumber remains a key material affected by tariffs, and lumber costs have risen this year even as new construction has remained muted. If these costs continue to increase, the effects aren’t likely to hit builders all at once, since they typically spread out lumber purchases and utilize contracts over time. This means that cost increases would likely hit builders gradually rather than as a one-time impact.
Higher gas prices resulting from the war in Iran are also driving up the cost of some building materials. Suppliers of paint, roofing, cement, aggregates and OSB have already raised prices or anticipate raising them, and continued increases in gas prices stemming from the ongoing conflict could potentially bring more price hikes in the months ahead.