Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has emerged as the early favorite for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination in New Hampshire, while Vice President JD Vance continues to lead the Republican field despite Secretary of State Marco Rubio making significant gains, according to a new Granite State poll.

Among likely Democratic primary voters, Ocasio-Cortez received 22% support, narrowly edging out former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who drew 21%.

Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly finished a distant third with 9%, followed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom at 8%, Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont at 6%, and former Vice President Kamala Harris at 5%. No other potential Democratic contender exceeded 2% support.

The poll indicates that Ocasio-Cortez has gained momentum since February, climbing seven percentage points. Over the same period, Newsom’s support declined by seven points, while Harris dropped five points.

Ocasio-Cortez performed especially well among voters who identify as socialists and progressives, while Buttigieg attracted a broader coalition, drawing support relatively evenly from progressives, liberals, and moderates.

The New York congresswoman also posted the strongest favorability numbers among likely Democratic primary voters. Sixty-four percent viewed her favorably, while 9% held an unfavorable opinion. Buttigieg also received strong marks, with 69% viewing him favorably and 15% unfavorably.

On the Republican side, Vance remained the frontrunner with 36% support among likely GOP primary voters. Rubio, however, surged to 26%, representing a 19-point increase since February.

Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky and former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley each received 8%, followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 6% and former Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard at 4%.

Although Vance’s support has fallen by 17 percentage points since February, he continues to hold a commanding advantage among conservatives, who favor him over Rubio by a 49% to 29% margin.

Rubio’s strongest support came from Republicans who identify as moderates and libertarians.

The survey also underscored President Donald Trump’s continuing influence within the Republican Party.

Two-thirds of likely Republican primary voters said they want the party’s 2028 presidential nominee to continue building on Trump’s presidency, while 28% said they would prefer the party take a different direction.

The poll also found that 43% of likely Republican primary voters said a Trump endorsement would make them more likely to support a candidate, while another 43% said such an endorsement would have little or no impact. Thirteen percent said a Trump endorsement would make them less likely to support a Republican candidate.

The survey questioned 1,458 adults in New Hampshire between July 15 and July 20. The overall margin of error was plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.

Among likely Democratic primary voters, the margin of error was plus or minus 3.8 percentage points, while the Republican primary sample carried a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

{Matzav.com}