A new national survey from the Emerson College Polling Center suggests the race for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination is rapidly tightening, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio drawing even with Vice President JD Vance among GOP primary voters. At the same time, the poll indicates Democrats have built a sizable lead on the generic congressional ballot ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

The July 19-20 survey, conducted among 1,100 likely voters nationwide, found Democrats holding an 11-point advantage over Republicans in the generic congressional race, leading 53% to 42%.

That margin marks a sharp increase from January, when Democrats held a six-point edge.

According to Emerson Executive Director Spencer Kimball, much of the Democratic advantage stems from strong support among female voters. Women back the Democratic candidate by a 56% to 39% margin, while male voters remain much more evenly split between the two parties.

The poll also measured public attitudes toward President Donald Trump, finding that 39% of respondents approve of his job performance while 57% disapprove.

Among Republican voters looking ahead to the next presidential primary, the survey points to an increasingly competitive contest.

Vance led the field with 39% support, but Rubio was virtually tied at 38%. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump Jr. each received 5%, while 9% of Republican primary voters said they remain undecided.

The results suggest that, at least for now, no candidate has established a commanding lead in the race to become the Republican Party’s 2028 nominee.

The survey also highlights a significant shift since earlier this year. Vance’s support has fallen from 52% in February to 39%, while Rubio’s backing has surged from 20% to 38%, erasing what had once been a substantial gap between the two.

Political analysts have also suggested that additional Republican figures, including Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, could decide to enter the race if the contest remains wide open.

Vance has drawn criticism from some conservatives over remarks they viewed as hostile toward U.S. policy supporting Israel, as well as for declining to publicly rebuke allies such as political commentator Tucker Carlson over allegations of antisemitic rhetoric.

The Emerson survey also examined Republican attitudes toward U.S. aid to Israel, finding that 55% of Republican voters believe the United States is providing the appropriate level of assistance. In contrast, most Democrats and independent voters said they believe Washington is spending too much on aid to the Jewish state.

Beyond the political horse race, the poll found that voters now rank “threats to democracy” as the nation’s leading concern, cited by 28% of respondents. The economy followed closely at 27%, with immigration at 16% and healthcare at 13%.

{Matzav.com}