Russia appears to be positioning itself for a dramatic expansion of its war against Ukraine once September’s State Duma elections conclude, with new political messaging, legislative moves, and military preparations suggesting the Kremlin is preparing for a more intensive phase of the conflict, according to a new assessment by the Jamestown Foundation.

As those warnings mount, Ukrainian forces have continued carrying out deep strikes inside Russian territory. In a national address on Saturday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Moscow is getting ready to launch a large-scale mobilization campaign while also preparing to deploy tens of thousands of additional North Korean troops.

The assessment comes as Ukraine sustains one of its most extensive long-range attack campaigns since the war began.

Using drones and missiles, Ukrainian forces have repeatedly targeted oil refineries, military logistics hubs, and strategic infrastructure in and around Moscow, highlighting Kyiv’s expanding ability to strike well beyond the battlefield.

At the same time, analysts say the Kremlin has noticeably altered its public messaging.

According to the Washington-based Jamestown Foundation, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov’s recent statement describing Russia’s campaign as “a real war” marks a significant shift from the language Moscow has used since launching its invasion in 2022.

Throughout the conflict, Russian officials had consistently referred to the fighting only as a “special military operation.”

Jamestown believes Peskov’s remarks may be designed to prepare the Russian public for a broader military call-up and a prolonged war effort rather than any serious move toward negotiations.

The report highlights four key developments that, taken together, suggest the Kremlin is laying the groundwork for escalation.

The first is reports from sources said to be close to President Vladimir Putin claiming he has “resolved to escalate” the war instead of pursuing a negotiated settlement, reinforcing previous assessments by Western intelligence that his objectives extend far beyond Ukraine.

The second involves growing expectations within Russia that Putin could announce a nationwide mobilization shortly after September’s parliamentary elections.

According to the report, while the elections themselves do not determine Putin’s political future, they provide an opportunity to demonstrate public and elite support before unveiling potentially unpopular military decisions. Jamestown suggests Peskov’s comments may have served as a test of public reaction.

A third warning sign is proposed legislation requiring Russian citizens to obtain exit visas before traveling abroad.

Although the measure is initially aimed at travel to countries Russia considers “unfriendly,” analysts believe it could also make it far more difficult for military-age men to flee the country if another draft is ordered, similar to the mass departures that followed Russia’s partial mobilization in 2022.

The fourth indicator cited by the report is the Kremlin’s continued expansion of its nationwide Cossack mobilization system.

Jamestown says Russia is building reserve formations expected to eventually number about 60,000 personnel while simultaneously creating specialized drone units, expanding reserve training exercises, and strengthening volunteer battalions already fighting in Ukraine.

The report also points to increasing military cooperation between Moscow and North Korea as another major concern.

Speaking Saturday, Zelenskyy said Russia has been preparing since June to receive an additional 30,000 North Korean troops in the Voronezh region.

Russia and North Korea signed a mutual defense agreement in 2024, and Pyongyang has already sent an estimated 12,000 to 15,000 personnel to support Russian military operations.

“Russia wants to receive another 30,000 troops from North Korea,” Zelenskyy said, warning that the partnership is allowing North Korea to gain valuable combat experience while advancing its military technology.

According to Politico, such a deployment would significantly deepen North Korea’s direct involvement in Europe’s largest ground war since World War II.

Zelenskyy also argued that Russia’s battlefield losses continue to exceed the pace of new recruitment.

He said Moscow has enlisted roughly 221,000 soldiers during 2026 while suffering approximately 225,500 casualties, including an estimated 131,000 troops killed.

Despite those losses, Ukrainian intelligence believes the Kremlin still intends to launch another mobilization campaign later this year.

The Institute for the Study of War similarly concluded that Putin is likely to wait until after the September elections before announcing another politically unpopular draft, while continuing to signal that Russia remains committed to achieving its maximum military objectives rather than freezing the conflict.

For Western officials, analysts say the combination of increasingly forceful Kremlin rhetoric, legal measures that could facilitate mobilization, the rapid expansion of reserve forces, and growing North Korean military involvement all point toward preparations for a significantly larger phase of the war as 2026 progresses.

Whether those moves ultimately lead to a nationwide mobilization or a major new offensive remains unclear.

Even so, analysts say the overall pattern increasingly suggests the Kremlin is preparing for escalation—not negotiations—as the next stage of the conflict.