Retired Brig. Gen. Erez Winner is warning that Israel faces a growing and potentially catastrophic security threat in Judea and Samaria, arguing that the country’s greatest danger does not come from Iran, Gaza, or Lebanon, but from a dangerous combination of terrorism, weapons smuggling, criminal networks, and the Palestinian Authority. He cautioned that unless Israel changes course, the next October 7-style attack could be even more severe.

As Israeli security forces continue battling an increase in terrorist attacks throughout Judea and Samaria, Winner, who chairs the Israel Defense and Security Forum (HaBitachonistim), said the deteriorating situation reflects a much deeper strategic failure rather than isolated operational shortcomings.

Winner rejected the widespread characterization that Israel is experiencing a “new” wave of terrorism, insisting the violence has been building steadily for many months while authorities failed to confront its root causes.

“Everyone is talking about a new wave of terror,” Winner told Arutz Sheva-Israel National News. “But I believe that this is not a new wave. For many months, there have been attempts to set farms on fire, poison livestock, and attack shepherds. The recent incidents simply received greater public attention, but this reality has existed for a long time.”

According to Winner, the October 7 massacre initially transformed the IDF’s approach in Judea and Samaria. He said the military reacted aggressively, particularly through reserve forces, adopting a policy of responding decisively to every act of violence, no matter how small.

“There was shock, and the IDF responded with force, primarily through reserve forces. We did not ignore any incident – not even a single stone-throwing attack. This determined policy significantly reduced the level of violence and friction.”

But Winner said that once security conditions improved, Israel gradually relaxed that aggressive posture, allowing hostile forces to regain momentum while incitement from the Palestinian Authority continued unabated through schools, the media, and public messaging.

He also argued that intensified debate over expanding Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria has fueled even greater Palestinian incitement. At the same time, he said, international organizations and Israeli advocacy groups have amplified allegations of so-called “settler violence,” creating an atmosphere that encourages additional attacks.

“The stronger the communities became, the more intense the Palestinian incitement against them became as well. At the same time, there is a broad campaign focused on ‘settler violence,’ promoted by Israeli organizations together with international NGOs and various UN bodies. All of these factors create an environment that fuels further violence.”

Winner called on Israel to return to the assertive security doctrine it employed immediately after October 7, combining military operations with civilian initiatives designed to restore deterrence.

“We must restore the firm approach that characterized the period following October 7 – not only through raids and arrests, but also through civilian measures. Ultimately, we are judged by the response we elicit from the other side.”

He maintained that the Palestinian leadership views control of territory as its overriding objective and argued that Israel should no longer continue operating under assumptions rooted in the Oslo Accords.

“If Abu Mazen has already declared that the Oslo Accords are dead, there is no reason that only Israel should continue operating as though those agreements still exist. We must understand that the Palestinian Authority is not a partner, but a hostile actor.”

Winner further accused the Palestinian Authority of actively promoting and financing terrorism while criticizing those who continue advocating for strengthening it or restoring its control over Gaza.

“This is an armed authority that incites terrorism, supports terrorism, and funds terrorism. And yet there are still those who continue to advocate strengthening it – and even returning it to power in Gaza. It is time to call things by their proper name.”

He added that numerous members of the Palestinian Authority’s own security forces have allegedly participated in terrorist activity over the past two years, saying Israel should abandon the notion that the PA serves as a security partner.

Drawing lessons from October 7, Winner warned against dismissing those who sound alarms before disaster strikes.

“Before October 7, there were people who warned about Hamas, but many dismissed them as extremists or alarmists. In hindsight, they were proven right. We must not repeat the same mistake with the Palestinian Authority.”

Addressing arguments that the IDF’s manpower shortages are limiting its ability to respond effectively, Winner said the real problem lies in strategy rather than troop numbers.

“The issue is not the number of forces, but the way they are used. We are spreading too few soldiers across too large an area. When forces operate offensively, with focus and initiative, they can achieve far more even with fewer personnel.”

He proposed concentrating military operations in selected areas, working closely with local Jewish communities, and launching focused campaigns to seize illegal weapons instead of attempting to tackle every challenge simultaneously.

“We do not need to do everything at once. We can begin in one area, or launch an operation to collect illegal weapons in a single city. The important thing is to make a decision and begin acting.”

Winner concluded with a stark warning that Israel must not underestimate the growing dangers developing closer to home.

“The real threat facing the State of Israel is not only Gaza, Lebanon, or Iran. It is also the hundreds of thousands of weapons smuggled into the region, the criminal organizations, and the Palestinian Authority. If we fail to address this in time, October 7 may prove to have been only a preview of what is still to come.”

{Matzav.com}