A stunning new survey suggests New York’s race for governor may be far more competitive than expected, with Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman trailing Gov. Kathy Hochul by only four percentage points as dissatisfaction with the state’s direction continues to grow.

The poll found Hochul receiving support from 47% of registered voters, while 43% backed Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman. Another 10% of respondents said they remain undecided. The survey, commissioned by the pro-Blakeman “Strong and Safe” super PAC, indicates a race that is significantly tighter than many previous public polls.

The same survey found Hochul struggling with public perception. Just 38% of those questioned said they viewed her favorably, while 58% expressed an unfavorable opinion.

Her job approval numbers were similarly weak, with only 39% approving of her performance as governor and 56% saying they disapprove.

According to the polling memo, voter frustration with incumbents appears to be widespread. Only one-third of respondents believe Hochul deserves another term, while a commanding 61% said they would rather see someone new in the governor’s office. The survey was conducted between July 7 and July 12.

“The environment favors a challenger: just 33% say New York is headed in the right direction vs. 57% wrong track,” Red Oak Strategic said in its July 21 polling memo to “interested parties.”

Blakeman remains relatively unknown to many voters despite the close race. Thirty percent said they have a favorable opinion of him, 23% view him unfavorably, and nearly half — 47% — either have never heard of him or have not formed an opinion with fewer than 100 days remaining before the Nov. 3 election.

Supporters of the Republican candidate believe those numbers leave significant room for growth, especially given Hochul’s weak standing among voters.

The survey also found widespread dissatisfaction with the direction of New York. Fifty-seven percent of respondents believe the state is on the wrong track, while only 33% believe it is moving in the right direction.

When asked about their biggest concerns, most voters pointed to the rising cost of living, inflation, the economy, jobs, and taxes. Public safety ranked as another major issue, cited by roughly one-third of those surveyed.

A majority of respondents — 57% — blamed politicians for increasing living costs, while 35% pointed the finger at corporations.

Personal financial outlooks also reflected voter frustration. Forty-three percent said they are worse off financially than they were a year ago, while only 15% reported being better off. The remainder said their financial situation has stayed about the same. The survey carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.

Independent voters could prove especially important if the poll accurately reflects the electorate.

“Hochul opens at 47–43 (Hochul +4%) with 10% undecided. Blakeman already leads independents 54%–33%, holds Republicans 83–10, and runs strongest in the suburbs (51%),” the polling memo said.

Despite the close numbers, Hochul continues to enjoy a commanding financial advantage.

Recent campaign finance filings show her campaign committee, “Friends for Kathy Hochul,” holding approximately $21 million in cash, while another $22 million sits in the New York State Democratic Party’s accounts.

That financial edge is more than four times greater than the combined resources available to Blakeman and the state Republican Party.

Outside spending could narrow that gap. Pro-Blakeman groups such as the Strong and Safe super PAC, which is backed by Madison Square Garden owner James Dolan, are expected to invest millions of dollars during the final stretch of the campaign.

Campaign finance records show that MSG Entertainment and MSG Sports each contributed $350,000 to Strong and Safe earlier this month, for a combined $700,000.

In addition, MSG has donated $2 million to the Coalition to Restore New York, a political organization created by Dolan in 2021. That group later transferred $300,000 to Strong and Safe.

Red Oak Strategic projects that approximately 5.9 million New Yorkers — roughly 44% of the state’s 13.5 million registered voters — will cast ballots in the November election.

The survey also found Republicans displaying significantly greater enthusiasm than Democrats. According to the poll, 73% of Republicans said they are much more interested in this year’s governor’s race than in previous elections, compared to 44% of Democrats, creating what the poll described as a 29-point enthusiasm advantage.

Even so, Democrats continue to hold a substantial registration advantage statewide, outnumbering Republicans by more than two to one. Roughly one-quarter of New York voters are registered as independents or are not affiliated with any political party.

The survey did not examine how President Donald Trump could affect the race, despite his prominence in national politics and his relationship with Blakeman.

Historical trends have often favored the party out of power during midterm elections. In 2018, during President Trump’s first midterm election, then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo cruised to reelection over Republican Marc Molinaro as Democrats also gained congressional seats and captured control of the New York State Senate.

Hochul’s most recent gubernatorial victory came in 2022, when she defeated then-Long Island Congressman Lee Zeldin, who now serves as Administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, by six percentage points during President Joe Biden’s midterm election.

Other recent polling has painted a far different picture of the race. A Siena College survey released in late June showed Hochul with a commanding 52% to 32% advantage over Blakeman.

However, another poll conducted earlier this month by the conservative-leaning firm co/efficient for the Coalition to Protect Nassau Taxpayers also suggested a much tighter contest, putting Hochul ahead by six points, 47% to 41%, among likely general election voters.

{Matzav.com}