President Donald Trump said Saturday he has suspended planned U.S. military strikes against Iran after what he described as substantial progress toward an agreement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear program. Writing on social media, Trump said the emerging framework would deliver the immediate and complete opening of the strait along with an end to Iran’s nuclear threat, and that he had agreed to cancel the attack subject to reaching a deal rapidly.

For companies that move oil, containers or insurance paper through the Gulf, the operative number is 60. Israel’s Channel 12 reported that mediators are working to restore the memorandum of understanding Washington and Tehran signed last month. According to the report, the proposal would keep Hormuz open to international shipping for 60 days without transit fees while renewing the ceasefire. That is a two-month planning window, not a permanent settlement — and the last several did not survive their own terms.

The reason the previous memorandum collapsed is the same reason this one may. The earlier agreement unraveled over conflicting interpretations of who controls the waterway: Trump maintained it guaranteed unrestricted passage, while Iranian officials viewed it as preserving Tehran’s authority over commercial shipping routes. Nothing in the reported framework appears to resolve that dispute. Instead, it postpones it for another 60 days.

Tehran spent Sunday underscoring the divide. Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei told Iranian state television the strait would “in no way” return to the status it held before February 28, when the conflict began. He said Iran is discussing maritime traffic with Oman but that no negotiations are underway on a full reopening. Iran’s defense minister separately said the country remains prepared to respond to any military action despite Trump’s remarks.

According to Channel 12 and regional officials involved in the mediation, the proposal extends beyond shipping. It would return Washington and Tehran to direct nuclear negotiations, reopen Hormuz, halt attacks across the region — including strikes by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq against Gulf states and Jordan — while the United States would lift its naval blockade and allow Iranian oil exports to resume. The officials, speaking anonymously because they were not authorized to discuss the negotiations publicly, stressed that no final agreement has been reached.

That final provision is likely to move markets first. A reopening of Hormuz combined with Iranian crude returning to global markets would significantly increase available supply after months of disruption. U.S. crude climbed as high as $117.63 a barrel during the standoff before easing toward $112, roughly 40% above pre-conflict levels. Oil briefly fell below $70 in mid-July when traders believed the war had ended, only to reverse higher as fighting resumed.

American consumers have experienced the same swings. National average gasoline prices reached about $4.14 per gallon during the crisis, while diesel climbed to $5.64, approaching the record $5.82 set in 2022. Diesel costs ultimately filter into freight rates, food prices and construction costs across the economy.

Transit fees remain another unresolved issue. Iran agreed under the June 17 interim understanding not to impose tolls for 60 days. Trump later announced a proposed 20% charge on cargo moving through the strait after declaring the United States its guardian, but withdrew the idea following strong opposition from the shipping industry. The International Maritime Organization has maintained that mandatory transit tolls through the strait are not permitted under international law, and major carriers have indicated they would reject protection fees imposed by either side.

Regional governments are treating the diplomatic pause cautiously. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman spoke with Trump before Saturday’s announcement and expressed concern about further escalation, according to the Saudi Press Agency. A person familiar with the conversation said Saudi leaders remain concerned that Iran could retaliate against critical Gulf energy infrastructure. Trump also said Israel had agreed to support the proposed ceasefire, though Israeli officials have not publicly commented.

Trump has announced several pauses since military operations against Iran began on February 28, and previous ceasefire attempts have repeatedly collapsed. Reports also continue to point to divisions inside Iran’s leadership between hardliners opposed to negotiations and officials who believe sustained military pressure strengthens Tehran’s bargaining position.

For shipping companies, refiners and insurers, the practical calculation remains unchanged. Even if a 60-day toll-free window is finalized, it provides a temporary opportunity to move cargo rather than a lasting solution. Charter contracts, insurance premiums and energy hedges extending beyond early October will still need to account for the unresolved dispute over who ultimately controls one of the world’s most strategically important waterways.

JBizNews Desk | New York

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