A new study by researchers at Tel Aviv University has found that Israel’s elevated emigration trend continued through 2025, marking the third consecutive year in which record numbers of Israelis left the country for extended periods, raising concerns about the long-term impact on the nation’s economy and security.

According to the report, 90,922 Israeli citizens spent at least three consecutive months outside Israel during 2025. That figure is nearly identical to the 91,499 recorded in 2024 and slightly above the 86,509 departures documented in 2023.

Over the three-year period from 2023 through 2025, a total of 268,509 Israelis left the country for three months or longer. Researchers noted that this is dramatically higher than the 183,219 departures recorded during the comparable period between 2013 and 2015.

The study was prepared by Prof. Itai Ater, who heads the Economists for Democracy forum, Prof. Nati Bergman, head of Tel Aviv University’s School of Economics, and Doron Zamir, a doctoral student in the university’s Faculty of Management. Their analysis is based on data from Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics.

Because official migration figures based on 12 consecutive months abroad have not yet been released for 2025, the researchers relied on data tracking Israelis who remained outside the country for at least three months. They said the two measurements have an exceptionally strong correlation—0.96—making the shorter-term data a reliable indicator of longer-term migration trends.

Based on that methodology, the researchers estimate that between 45,000 and 50,000 Israelis will ultimately qualify as official emigrants for 2025 under the government’s 12-month definition.

Prof. Ater said, “Even in 2025 we see very troubling numbers of Israelis leaving the country for a significant period. These figures do not yet pose an immediate danger to Israel’s resilience, but if the trend continues without change, there is a real risk of harm to Israel’s security and economy.”

The researchers noted that public debate over emigration has intensified since late 2022 amid Israel’s political turmoil, widespread protests, and the war that followed the Oct. 7 massacre. They said the purpose of the study is to provide an updated assessment using official government data.

The report also points to previous research showing especially sharp increases in emigration among physicians, PhD holders, engineers, academics, and higher-income earners.

Despite the concerning numbers, the researchers said the greatest threat lies not in the current level of departures but in the possibility that the trend accelerates. They warned that additional political instability, security challenges, or economic difficulties could trigger a “snowball” effect, in which continued emigration encourages even more Israelis to leave, potentially inflicting lasting damage on both the economy and Israeli society.