Tuesday’s Democratic Senate primary in Michigan is shaping up as a defining moment for the Democratic Party, with a victory by Abdul El-Sayed poised to deliver one of the most significant victories yet for the Democratic Socialists of America and the party’s progressive wing.

If El-Sayed prevails, he would become one of the movement’s most prominent elected officials and could wield considerable influence in the Senate should Democrats regain control of the chamber next year. In a battleground state narrowly won by President Donald Trump in 2024, his nomination would also suggest that the party’s leftward shift has expanded well beyond coastal strongholds and into the Midwest.

Recent surveys indicate El-Sayed, the former public health director for Detroit and Wayne County, has established a sizable advantage over four-term Rep. Haley Stevens. An Emerson College poll found him leading 54% to 39%, while Mitchell Research showed a 52% to 38% edge. The RealClearPolitics polling average places him ahead by roughly 10 percentage points, and prediction markets have also made him the clear favorite.

Much of El-Sayed’s support comes from younger voters and progressive Democrats, while Stevens has maintained stronger backing among older voters and many Black voters.

El-Sayed has secured endorsements from Sen. Bernie Sanders, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, every member of the congressional “Squad,” the United Auto Workers, and organizers affiliated with the Democratic Socialists of America, who have invested significant resources in the race.

Although El-Sayed has participated in DSA events and embraces many of the organization’s domestic policy priorities—including Medicare for All, universal childcare, a higher federal minimum wage, and eliminating the Senate filibuster—he has maintained that he is “not technically or practically DSA” and says he supports a regulated capitalist system rather than socialism.

That distinction has done little to quiet critics or diminish enthusiasm within the DSA, whose leaders view the Michigan contest as another test of their strategy of winning Democratic primaries and reshaping the party from within.

One of the campaign’s most contentious issues has been Israel. El-Sayed has repeatedly characterized Israel’s military campaign in Gaza as genocide, described the Israeli government as “as evil as Hamas,” called for an immediate and comprehensive arms embargo against Israel, and has declined to explicitly affirm Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish state. He has also argued that U.S. aid to Israel should instead be directed toward domestic priorities such as education and healthcare.

Those positions earned him the first-ever U.S. Senate endorsement from Jewish Voice for Peace Action.

Stevens, meanwhile, has received strong backing from pro-Israel organizations, including substantial independent expenditures from a super PAC affiliated with AIPAC. The heavy spending has helped make the Michigan contest the third most expensive Senate primary in U.S. history.

Many establishment Democrats and centrist independents argue that El-Sayed’s positions could prove politically damaging in a closely divided swing state. Former Rep. Cheri Bustos warned that nominating a “far-left socialist candidate” could cost Democrats another key election.

Jonathan Cowan, president of the centrist group Third Way, argued that El-Sayed would need to distance himself from the Democratic Socialists of America, affirm Israel’s right to exist, and abandon his previous support for “defund the police” policies if he hopes to defeat Republican Mike Rogers, who is running unopposed for the GOP nomination.

Stevens has also attracted endorsements from Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, and the Congressional Black Caucus, all of whom argue she represents the party’s strongest option in the general election.

Polling for a potential November matchup generally shows Stevens running even with Rogers, while El-Sayed has often trailed the Republican in hypothetical head-to-head surveys.

Should El-Sayed capture both the nomination and the Senate seat—and Democrats regain control of the chamber—he would emerge as one of the most prominent national advocates for the Democratic Socialists’ agenda, including Medicare for All, wealth taxes, and an anti-Zionist foreign policy, mirroring the influence New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani has built in New York.

Democratic leaders worry that such an outcome could further distance moderate voters and independents from the party. Supporters of the Democratic Socialists, however, see the Michigan primary as an opportunity to demonstrate that their movement can win not only in traditionally liberal urban centers, but also in one of the nation’s most competitive battleground states.

Michigan Democrats will decide Tuesday which vision of the party they want to carry into November.