New U.S. intelligence assessments warn that Russian President Vladimir Putin could launch a limited attack against a NATO member as early as this fall, raising concerns that Moscow may be preparing to challenge the alliance’s unity at a time when the United States is grappling with dwindling weapons stockpiles.

According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, U.S. officials believe any Russian action could range from a cyberattack to a limited military incursion, including the possibility of a ground invasion. The intelligence assessment estimates that such an attack could occur at any point between this fall and 2029.

American officials believe Putin’s objective would be to test NATO’s willingness to respond collectively under its mutual defense commitments and, ultimately, drive a wedge between the United States and its allies after more than seven decades of cooperation.

“The question mark is how the United States would respond in that case,” Heather Conley, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, told The Wall Street Journal regarding the possibility of a Russian attack.

“It has always been a goal [of Russia’s] to challenge the credibility of NATO and to separate the United States from its allies.”

Until recently, U.S. intelligence agencies believed Moscow would avoid provoking NATO while Russian forces remained deeply engaged in the war in Ukraine. However, officials now believe Putin may be willing to take the risk despite the ongoing conflict.

The reassessment comes as the Kremlin faces mounting domestic pressure to achieve a decisive victory in Ukraine. Russia has endured repeated long-range drone strikes targeting its oil infrastructure, while its military has suffered heavy casualties and seen its battlefield momentum slow significantly.

Officials also point to previous incidents that they say demonstrate Moscow’s willingness to test NATO’s resolve, including Russian missiles landing in Poland and Russian drones entering Romanian airspace.

The report also highlights growing concern within the U.S. military over shrinking weapons inventories. Years of supplying arms to Ukraine, combined with expenditures related to the conflict with Iran, have significantly reduced American stockpiles of key munitions.

Among the systems officials say are in short supply are Precision Strike Missiles, Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), and Stinger short-range surface-to-air missiles, according to The Wall Street Journal.

{Matzav.com}