Political analyst Amit Segal believes Israel’s next election could ultimately be decided by as few as 10,000 votes, a relatively small number that may determine not only which parties cross the electoral threshold, but also whether Gadi Eisenkot or Prime Minister Binyomin Netanyahu has a viable path to forming the next government.

Writing in his weekly column in Yisroel Hayom, Segal argued that a shift of only several thousand votes could dramatically reshape the political map and determine the balance of power between the rival blocs.

According to Segal, if Chili Tropper and Yoaz Hendel succeed in crossing the electoral threshold, the four Knesset seats they are projected to win could bring Eisenkot’s bloc to 60 seats—placing it within striking distance of assembling a stable governing coalition for the next four years. However, if those same four seats instead go to a party led by figures such as Gilad Erdan, Yuli Edelstein, or Ofer Winter, all of whom have not ruled out joining a Netanyahu-led government, the political equation changes dramatically.

“If those four mandates are won by Erdan, Edelstein, or Winter, who have not ruled out Netanyahu, it means Eisenkot will not have a majority to form a government even with the Arabs abstaining,” Segal wrote. “10,000 votes moving from one side to the other—and the outcome will be completely different.”

Segal also discussed ongoing efforts to establish a new party in the center-right camp. He wrote that the decision by Erdan and Edelstein to announce their intentions immediately is designed to create political momentum and pressure other figures on the right to unite under a single framework.

According to Segal, Benny Gantz believes the financial resources and political infrastructure already at his disposal will enable him to attract additional partners. Tropper, meanwhile, reportedly believes favorable polling numbers will persuade others to join his effort. Erdan, by contrast, intends to project determination with a straightforward message: “I’m staying until the end. Anyone who wants can join me.”

Segal concluded that the battle over the smaller parties—and the movement of just a few thousand votes—could prove to be the decisive factor in the election, fundamentally altering the balance of power between Netanyahu and Eisenkot when Israelis head to the polls.

{Matzav.com}