Speculation that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez could seek the White House in 2028 is intensifying, with the New York Democrat climbing into second place in a major online prediction market and polling competitively among potential Democrat primary contenders.
Polymarket announced Thursday that Ocasio-Cortez had moved ahead of Secretary of State Marco Rubio in its 2028 presidential election market for the first time this year, leaving her trailing only Vice President JD Vance.
Vance held the top position with a 23% chance of winning the presidency, according to the market, while Ocasio-Cortez stood at 13% and Rubio at 12%. Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia and California Gov. Gavin Newsom were each at 9%, while Kamala Harris registered 4%.
Ocasio-Cortez’s rise comes as questions mount over whether she will attempt to move from the House to the White House. While she has not closed the door on a presidential campaign, she has publicly maintained that her immediate attention is on this year’s midterm elections.
“I’m focused on winning the midterms. I’m running for Congress right now,” Ocasio-Cortez told ABC News’ “This Week” on Aug. 2 when asked whether she plans to run for president in two years.
“I haven’t ruled out the possibility. And I’m very humbled to the tremendous amount of support out there,” she added.
Ocasio-Cortez has also shown strength in the crucial early-primary state of New Hampshire. A University of New Hampshire survey conducted last month among likely Democrat presidential primary voters found her narrowly leading a hypothetical field, with 22% support compared to 21% for Pete Buttigieg.
Vance himself has predicted that Ocasio-Cortez could emerge as the Democrats’ standard-bearer in 2028. Appearing on “The Michael Knowles Show” on June 30, the vice president said he views her as the most likely candidate to lead the Democrat ticket.
“I think it’s got to be AOC. I know that’s probably conventional wisdom,” Vance said.
Knowles questioned whether Vance really believed Ocasio-Cortez had a better chance than Ossoff or other potential contenders.
“AOC more than Ossoff, more than any of these other guys?”
Vance responded that the answer depends largely on where the real center of influence within the Democrat Party now lies.
“It’s funny. The AOC versus Ossoff thing, the question would be who do you think really has the power in the Democratic Party,” Vance said.
“And if you think the answer is like Wall Street and the left-of-center business community, then it would be Ossoff. If you think it’s the universities, it would be AOC,” he continued.
Vance then pointed to an observation by author and political commentator David Brooks that he said offered an important explanation for the transformation of the Democrat Party’s political base.
“So [author] David Brooks made an observation. I think David Brooks probably hates my guts; but he, like, occasionally, will say something that I think is genuinely brilliant, and this was one of them,” Vance said.
“He said the fundamental problem with today’s Democratic Party is that the power center has shifted from unions to universities. If that’s right, AOC will be the nominee.”
National polling, however, currently paints a different picture from the New Hampshire survey and prediction markets. The RealClearPolitics average of hypothetical Democrat primary polling has Harris in first place at 28.9%, followed by Newsom at 16.4%. Buttigieg stands at 10.5%, while Ocasio-Cortez is fourth at 8.8%.
On the Republican side, Vance holds a commanding advantage in the RealClearPolitics polling average, receiving 39.8% support compared with Rubio’s 21.6%, an 18.2-point margin.
Rubio has sought to minimize speculation surrounding his own potential 2028 candidacy, saying his attention remains on his responsibilities as secretary of state in the Trump administration.
Still, Rubio recently demonstrated significant support among conservative activists. At the Western Conservative Summit in Colorado, he won a 2028 Republican presidential straw poll by a decisive margin, defeating Vance by 36 points.
{Matzav.com}