The fear was straightforward. When SpaceX went public in June, only a sliver of its stock was allowed to trade — everything else was frozen. On Aug. 6, the first freeze came off nearly a billion shares, and Wall Street expected the flood of new supply to crush the price. Instead the stock went up 35%.

Over the five sessions since the expiration, shares have added roughly $500 billion in market value and climbed back above the $135 price at which the company sold stock in its record $86 billion offering on June 11. The stock closed Wednesday at $146.15 before easing on Thursday to trade around $142, within a day range of $139.80 to $145.02. Its 52-week range now runs from $104.83 to $225.64.

The mechanism behind all of it is supply. SpaceX listed with under 5% of its shares available to trade — roughly 639 million out of billions outstanding. That scarcity did what scarcity does, and the stock ran to nearly $225 in the weeks after the debut, about 67% above the offering price. When only about one share in twenty can change hands, any buyer has to bid up to get filled.

The Aug. 6 unlock released 911.5 million shares — more than the entire amount sold in the IPO itself — which more than doubled the tradable pool to roughly 12% of the company, or about one share in eight. More sellers, in theory, means a lower clearing price.

SpaceX and its bankers had anticipated the problem and structured the release in nine stages rather than the single 180-day cliff most companies use, specifically because the company is large enough to move the whole market. Spreading the supply out is the difference between opening a valve and breaking a dam.

The stock did fall hard just before the date — down 14% the session before the expiration — but the cause appears to have been the company’s first earnings report rather than the unlock, and specifically how much it is spending. Second-quarter revenue came in at $7.81 billion against roughly $6.83 billion expected, with a net loss of $541 million. The company spent $18.37 billion in the quarter building data centers and developing Starship. Elon Musk told investors he expects annual revenue to reach $100 billion by the end of this year and $1 trillion by 2030. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization rose 191% to $3.5 billion. The stock closed as low as $108.27 in the stretch that followed.

“We’ve gotten through the big hurdle, which was the unknown,” said Andrew Plum of Loxahatchee Capital, which owns the shares, describing a market that had priced in a negative event more severely than the event warranted.

The supply tests are not finished. The next expiration falls on Aug. 20, releasing as many as 319 million shares, about 7% of the stock still under restriction, with similar 7% blocks following over the coming months. The tradable float is expected to reach roughly 40% by December. Musk’s own 6.4 billion shares stay locked until June 2027 — meaning the largest holder cannot sell for nearly another year, which removes the single biggest source of potential supply from the near-term math.

Analysts remain split on where this lands. Citi kept a buy rating and a $200 target after raising its 2026 and 2027 forecasts, noting that longer-term valuation depends heavily on Starship milestones. Morgan Stanley has held a $300 target while flagging near-term risks including the remaining lockup expirations and margin pressure from artificial-intelligence investment. Across 28 analysts recommending the stock as a buy and two as a sell, the average 12-month target sits at $232.44 — with estimates ranging from $62 to $800, a spread that says more about uncertainty than about consensus.

Before earnings and the unlocks, short interest in SpaceX in dollar terms exceeded that of Tesla, long one of the most heavily shorted names on Wall Street. Part of this month’s move is likely those positions closing out.

The lesson for anyone watching the remaining expirations is that a lockup date is a supply event, not a verdict on the business. The shares that came free on Aug. 6 are only worth selling if holders want out at the offered price, and enough of them did not. Whether that holds on Aug. 20, and through the far larger releases due by December, depends on the same thing it always does: whether buyers still believe the revenue numbers Musk has promised are coming.

JBizNews Desk | Wall Street

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