A 24-pack of Coca-Cola that cost $14.97 at Walmart now costs $9.97. A pound of fresh tomatoes costs about a fifth more than it did a year ago. Both are true at the same store on the same trip, and the reason is that one price is set by a retailer competing for your business and the other is set by a tax in Washington.

Start with the good news, because it is the part shoppers can act on. Walmart cut prices across thousands of items at its stores, Sam’s Club locations and its apps. The 24-packs of Coca-Cola, Diet Coke and Coke Zero Sugar dropped to $9.97 from $14.97 — a third off. Pepsi, Diet Pepsi, Dr Pepper and Diet Mountain Dew 24-packs went to the same $9.97 from $13.97. A pound of 73% ground beef fell to $5.94 from $6.74. A 2.25-pound bag of red cherries dropped to $5.63 from $11.18. Sweet corn went to 25 cents an ear from 68 cents. Great Value ice cream and an 8-ounce bag of Lay’s Classic both went to $2.50 from $2.97.

“Customers count on Walmart to deliver the value they need every day,” said Julie Barber, the chain’s U.S. chief merchant, describing the move as investments in price across beef, produce and beverages. The company frames these as seasonal reductions under its longstanding everyday-low-price approach rather than short-term promotions, and President Trump praised the retailer and sought credit for the cuts. Target lowered prices on some foods in March.

Now the other direction. In July of last year the administration put a duty of about 17% on fresh tomatoes from Mexico. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the import taxes were needed to protect American farmers from “unfair trade practices that undercut pricing on produce like tomatoes.” The move ended the 2019 suspension agreement that had governed the trade, replacing it with an antidumping duty of 17.09% on most fresh Mexican tomato imports.

The problem is arithmetic. The United States imports roughly 70% of its tomatoes, and about 90% of those imports come from Mexico. When you tax nearly two-thirds of the national supply, there is no domestic crop large enough to absorb the shift, so the tax lands on the shelf price.

Tomato prices rose roughly one-fifth from June 2025 to June 2026, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. An agribusiness economist at Arizona State University had estimated a 17% duty would push retail tomato prices up about 8.5%. The actual increase came in more than double that, because the duty was not the only pressure. Fertilizer prices paid to manufacturers jumped more than 20% year over year in June, with nitrogen fertilizer up 46%, driven by disruptions to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Freezes in Florida early this year damaged tomatoes, strawberries, citrus and sweet corn. Mexican tomato imports fell 13% year over year. Lettuce is up 32%. Diesel, which moves produce from farm to store, has topped $7.50 a gallon in some states.

Anyone hoping the tariff lifts should plan otherwise. The International Trade Commission reviewed the order on June 30 and upheld the 17% duty, finding no sufficiently changed circumstances to revoke it, after Mexican producers requested revocation. Mexican tomato production is forecast to fall 9% this year to 2.6 million metric tons, with planted acreage down 11% — meaning less supply heading north, not more.

Two practical notes for the grocery list. First, the tomato duty largely hits the fresh produce section. Canned tomatoes, sauce and paste are substantially less affected, according to economists — so a recipe that can use canned instead of fresh saves real money right now. Second, the retailer price cuts are on shelf-stable and freezer items: soda, chips, paper plates, ice cream. Those are worth buying deep while the rollback holds. Cherries and corn are seasonal and the discount goes with the season.

The wider pattern is worth understanding, because it explains why the inflation reports keep saying prices are cooling while the register says otherwise. Bain and NielsenIQ found American shoppers bought fewer grocery items in the second half of last year, with the decline sharper by February. Retailers are fighting for those shrinking baskets by cutting prices where competition is fierce. Where the cost comes from a policy decision rather than a competitor, nobody is cutting anything.

JBizNews Desk | New York

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