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Meir Ben-Shabbat to Arutz Sheva: Hamas is trying to replicate Hezbollah's model

Jul 17, 2026·7 min read
Meir Ben Shabbat
Meir Ben ShabbatAvshalom Sassoni/Flash90

Former National Security Adviser Meir Ben-Shabbat, now head of the Misgav Institute for National Security, said in an interview with Arutz Sheva that Israel must remain prepared for possible Iranian retaliation following recent U.S. strikes on Iran and warned against withdrawing from strategic positions in Lebanon.

Ben-Shabbat said that while Israel is not currently involved in the exchange of blows between the United States and Iran, it must prepare for several possible scenarios.

"At this stage, Israel is not involved in the exchange of attacks and should not seek to insert itself into it," he said. "However, it must be prepared for the following scenarios: the possibility that Iran will attack Israel directly in response to an American strike (senior Iranian officials have threatened that if the U.S. attacks its infrastructure, Israel will not remain outside the conflict); the possibility that Hezbollah or the Houthis will attack Israel under Iranian direction-either in response to American action or for another reason; and the possibility of a broader escalation in which Israel will be asked to operate alongside or assist the United States."

In his view, "Israel should use this time to tighten the screws and improve its readiness both defensively and offensively. At the same time, Israel must refine its policy in Lebanon so that, on the one hand, it can continue its operations without allowing that front to become linked to developments involving Iran, while on the other hand avoiding giving anyone grounds to accuse it of collapsing the 'memorandum of understandings.'"

What should Israel emphasize to the United States, which itself recognizes the difficulties of reaching an agreement with Iran?

"I think Tehran, more than anyone else, is helping President Trump understand who he is dealing with. The month that has passed since the 'memorandum of understandings' was signed has helped dispel the optimism its architects tried to create. The Iranians have made clear that they will not back down from their position regarding the Strait of Hormuz. 'The Strait of Hormuz belongs to Iran for historical and geographical reasons. This waterway will never return to what it was before the war,' Ali Akbar Velayati, senior adviser to the Supreme Leader, declared. Similar messages have been delivered by numerous Iranian officials.

"The insistence on dictating the conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the maneuvering in negotiations, and the growing calls to eliminate Trump leave the American president with no alternative but military and economic pressure. Trump still prefers a bad agreement to a successful war, but he cannot surrender on the one issue that represented his only achievement in the 'memorandum of understandings.' He knows that capitulating to Iranian demands would not only embarrass him but would fail to resolve the crisis and would merely increase the appetite of the extremist regime. If this is how matters stand regarding the temporary memorandum, one can only imagine what negotiations over the far more complex nuclear issues will look like."

In recent days there have been increasing reports that President Trump is pressuring Israel to withdraw from areas it controls in Lebanon and Syria. Can Israel afford such a step now?

"The most important element of the agreement with Lebanon is the Lebanese government's willingness to stand against Hezbollah and Iranian interference, and the legitimacy it grants Israel's military presence as long as the threat posed by Hezbollah has not been removed. Anyone familiar with Lebanon's history, demographic makeup, and internal balance of power will struggle to find grounds for optimism. Reality demonstrates just how artificial the divisions created by the Sykes-Picot Agreement were.

"In any case, we are looking toward the future, not the past, and Israel's conclusion is that it must maintain a security zone and preserve its operational freedom in order to defend itself.

"The same is true regarding Syria, where Israel faces a jihadist in a suit who also serves as a proxy for Erdoğan, given the Turkish president's ambitions and his positions toward Israel. With all due respect to diplomatic arrangements, Israel cannot trade its control of territory and its operational freedom for agreements that would not be worth the paper they are written on. I am convinced these issues can be resolved within the framework of our relationship with the Trump administration and will not lead to a confrontation."

What should Israel continue insisting on in its talks with Lebanon? What are the red lines?

"Israel must not give up its strategic objective of disarming Hezbollah. It must maintain the principle that as long as a threat exists, Israel has the right to hold territory and act in self-defense. In addition, Israel must insist on-and if necessary act independently to prevent-Hezbollah's military rearmament and renewed entrenchment."

The front we hear the least about is Gaza, even though Hamas continues rebuilding its capabilities.

"Hamas has exploited Israel's shift in attention toward Iran and Lebanon to intensify efforts to rebuild its military capabilities in Gaza. At the same time, it is consolidating its rule, suppressing internal opposition, and using the 'mediating countries' to pressure Israel into restraint while allowing civilian measures to proceed without requiring Hamas to disarm."

What steps should Israel take to avoid waking up one day and discovering that Hamas has rebuilt itself and regained control of Gaza?

"More than anything else, what concerns Hamas today is the increased pace of Israeli targeted killings and counterterrorism operations. The long list of Gaza-based terrorists eliminated recently by the IDF and the Shin Bet supports this assessment. It demonstrates not only the intelligence and operational capabilities of our forces, but also Israel's success in continuing these operations despite the restrictions Hamas and the mediating countries tried to impose.

"Hamas continues to play games by proposing various formulas designed to avoid its obligation to disarm. It is also trying to create the impression that it is willing to relinquish civilian governance. In reality, Hamas remains the strongest power in Gaza. It has no intention of giving up its weapons, and regarding civilian rule, it is trying to replicate Hezbollah's model in Lebanon.

"Israel cannot accept Hamas continuing to exist as a military organization, as the governing authority, or as the dominant power in Gaza. Therefore, it will have to finish the job, subject to the constraints created by the situation involving Iran and Lebanon. On the front where everything began, Israel will have to complete the mission.

"Alongside the praise for Israel's operations, it must be said honestly that the pace of counterterrorism operations is not keeping up with the enemy's efforts to restore its governance and military capabilities. The IDF and the Shin Bet must continue pursuing Hamas terrorists, dismantling its governing institutions, strengthening efforts to prevent military reconstruction, and significantly improving the fight against weapons smuggling. In addition, they must remain alert to the possibility that Hamas will begin using drones-copying the pattern we saw in Lebanon-as well as the possibility of renewed kidnapping attempts, because these are the only ways this enemy can escape its current predicament and secure the release of its imprisoned operatives."

Israel is entering an election period. We have learned that internal division projects weakness to our enemies. What should be done during this time to project strength?

"On the eve of Tisha B'Av in 2023, about two months before the massacre, I published an article titled 'Happy Is the One Who Is Always Vigilant,' in which I wrote precisely about this issue. Indeed, internal disputes and polarization do very little to strengthen our national resilience and they influence how our enemies perceive us. National unity is, of course, important in its own right, regardless of our enemies, and everyone should work toward it within their own sphere of influence.

"As for our enemies' expectations, unfortunately, they witnessed in real time that when Israel faces danger, the people unite against those who seek to destroy them. May we succeed in uniting-or at least moderating our disagreements-even without having to face such tragic circumstances."

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