A new security assessment is warning that Israel can no longer view its border with Jordan as a stable and quiet frontier, cautioning that the eastern border could one day face an attack resembling the October 7 massacre, Arutz Sheva reports. The report urges Israel to strengthen defenses along the border while maintaining close strategic cooperation with Jordan.

The study, authored by Col. (res.) Prof. Gabi Siboni and Brig. Gen. (res.) Erez Winner, argues that a combination of mounting instability inside Jordan, Iran’s expanding regional influence, and increasing weapons and drug smuggling demands a fundamental reassessment of Israel’s security posture along its eastern boundary.

According to the report, Israel should prepare for the possibility of a coordinated cross-border assault in which terrorists or armed vehicles infiltrate through multiple locations simultaneously before advancing quickly toward Jordan Valley communities and Route 90, creating a scenario similar to the October 7 attacks.

The researchers warn that vulnerabilities along the current border could make such an operation possible. They argue that without a continuous and effective security barrier, together with adequately sized rapid-response forces, Israel could face a devastating attack resulting in unprecedented casualties.

Despite the concerns, the study emphasizes that Jordan remains one of Israel’s most important strategic partners and says preserving the stability of the Hashemite Kingdom is a vital Israeli security interest.

However, the authors stress that Israel cannot depend solely on its security coordination with Amman. They say Israel must also develop the ability to independently defend the border in the event the Jordanian government loses control over portions of its territory or experiences significant instability.

The report identifies several domestic pressures weighing on Jordan, including a prolonged economic downturn, widespread unemployment, water shortages, a heavy national debt, and demographic challenges stemming from the country’s large Palestinian population.

It also points to what the researchers describe as the growing influence of extremist groups, including the Muslim Brotherhood and jihadist organizations, which they say are placing increasing pressure on the Hashemite monarchy.

Siboni and Winner further warn that Iran and its regional proxies are attempting to establish Jordan as another operational front against Israel.

Among the threats highlighted are intensified weapons and narcotics smuggling across the Syria-Jordan border, the use of drones to transport weapons, and the possible emergence of pro-Iranian militias operating near Israel’s eastern frontier.

The report says these developments could fundamentally transform what has long been regarded as one of Israel’s quietest borders into an active security hotspot.

To address those risks, the researchers recommend rapidly completing the security barrier along the Jordanian border while expanding and reinforcing the IDF’s Eastern Division, which is responsible for the sector.

They also call for enhanced intelligence collection, stronger surveillance capabilities, advanced drone detection and interception systems, and a significant increase in rapid-response units stationed throughout the region.

In addition, the study urges Israel to invest further in strengthening communities, agricultural settlements, and farms throughout the Jordan Valley, describing them as a key component of the area’s overall defensive network.

On the diplomatic front, the authors recommend continuing to deepen cooperation with Jordan in areas such as water resources, energy, and economic development while also pressing the kingdom to take stronger action against weapons smuggling, drug trafficking, and anti-Israel incitement.

The report concludes that while Jordan’s continued stability remains a strategic priority for Israel, Jerusalem must simultaneously prepare for the possibility that conditions across the border could deteriorate quickly.

“Let us not return to an event similar to October 7,” Siboni and Winner write, warning that what now appears to be Israel’s quietest border could become the country’s next major security challenge.

{Matzav.com}