Persian Gulf energy producers are increasingly concluding that Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz could become a permanent reality, threatening to disrupt their oil and gas exports and global energy supplies for the foreseeable future. Despite deep opposition to an emerging arrangement that would formalize Iranian oversight of ships entering the Persian Gulf, regional governments increasingly see it as preferable to renewed war between the United States and Iran, The Wall Street Journal reports.

The dilemma has left some of the world’s most important energy-producing countries with few good options. Gulf officials fear that another round of military escalation could expose their oil, gas, water and other critical infrastructure to Iranian attacks, while accepting the proposed arrangement would effectively concede Tehran an unprecedented degree of influence over one of the world’s most important shipping routes.

Negotiations aimed at reopening the strait have stalled in recent days. Iran has demanded financial relief and restrictions barring American and Israeli warships from the waterway, while the United States has rejected an agreement that would allow Tehran to impose obstacles on international shipping. Gulf states, meanwhile, increasingly believe they cannot guarantee the strait will remain completely open and safe and may have little choice but to accept some Iranian demands.

The disruption has already dramatically reduced oil traffic. Crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz fell to roughly 2.2 million barrels a day last week, compared with about 8.5 million barrels a day a month earlier, according to commodities-data provider Kpler. Gulf governments are also resigned to the possibility that any agreement over Hormuz would leave Iran’s missile program and its support for allied militias around the region intact.

Gulf countries have been scrambling for alternatives, including expanding pipelines toward the Red Sea and Gulf of Oman, increasing oil-storage capacity and moving some ships through Hormuz near Oman with their location beacons switched off. The United Arab Emirates had managed to restore oil exports to prewar levels by combining overland routes around Hormuz with vessels slipping through the strait, but those gains have increasingly been threatened by Iranian attacks. ADNOC said 16 of its ships have been struck since the war began, including four hit by missiles or drones during the past week.

Even routes designed to bypass Hormuz have proven vulnerable. Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis have attacked shipments of Saudi oil transported across the Arabian Peninsula to the Red Sea, while a drone attack on a Mediterranean port in Egypt set two ships ablaze, including a U.S. gas-storage tanker. The incidents have reinforced concerns among Gulf governments that alternative export routes cannot fully eliminate Iran’s ability to disrupt the region’s energy trade.

Iranian officials have also threatened throughout the conflict to strike regional energy infrastructure if President Donald Trump follows through on threats to escalate militarily. In recent days, Tehran has warned that it could target energy facilities across the Gulf. Regional officials acknowledge that both energy and water infrastructure remain highly vulnerable and could become targets designed to disrupt supplies and pressure Washington.

For Gulf governments, the emerging calculation is increasingly stark: accepting greater Iranian influence over Hormuz is deeply undesirable, but another major war that could further choke energy exports, damage critical infrastructure and drive away foreign investment may be even worse.

(YWN World Headquarters – NYC)