Human rights organisations say forced military recruitment in Russia has surged since mid-August, fueling concerns that the Kremlin could be preparing another mobilisation campaign following September’s elections.

Russian security services are reportedly detaining civilians in public places and pressuring them to sign military contracts, as growing evidence points to preparations for a potential new recruitment drive for the war in Ukraine.

In mid-August, the Russian human rights organisation Idite lesom received 14 appeals from people who said security forces had detained them and coerced or pressured them into signing military contracts at police stations or military enlistment offices.

The organisation, which assists Russians seeking to avoid participation in the war, said the increase began on August 10th. “There were only isolated round-ups in July, now we are at a peak,” Ivan Chuvilyaev, a representative of the project, told Euronews.

Reported incidents have emerged across Russia, from Novorossiysk to Birobidzhan. Men have allegedly been stopped on the street under the guise of document checks or accusations such as drinking in public, while others were detained at their workplaces or while travelling home.

The Penza region has recorded similar cases since mid-June. During that period, Idite lesom also documented seven instances involving conscript soldiers who were allegedly pressured or forced to sign contracts with Russia’s Defence Ministry.

Prisons have also become part of the recruitment effort, according to Chuvilyaev. He said representatives of Russia’s Federal Penitentiary Service have been looking for potential contract soldiers in detention centres and prisons.

At the same time, civilian recruiters are reportedly approaching financially vulnerable people, including debtors and unemployed individuals, through job postings, recruitment agencies and personal networks.

“If someone has money problems, the recruiters will find them,” he said. “People realise what they have got into only when they are already at the front.”

Idite lesom says more than 80,000 people have sought assistance from the organisation since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022.

Mobilisation after the elections?

Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, have repeatedly warned that Moscow could announce another mobilisation campaign after September’s State Duma elections.

Western intelligence sources cited by the Wall Street Journal said Russia conducted mobilisation-readiness exercises in the Kaliningrad region last month. The drills reportedly included preparations involving accommodation, food supplies and weapons for residents.

Russian state media separately reported exercises in the same region in July, saying they were intended to practise responses to drone attacks.

Organisations assisting Russians who want to leave the country have also reported a substantial increase in inquiries since mid-July.

“It is reminiscent of the situation in 2022, early 2023,” a coordinator with the German human rights initiative inTransit, who requested anonymity, told Euronews.

“The threat of mobilisation keeps cropping up like a refrain in a large number of requests. People are afraid that they will not be able to leave later if they do not do it now,” the inTransit coordinator said.

“They also fear that they may be forced to sign a contract, even if they resist, or the signature may be forged on their behalf.”

The coordinator said people facing investigations, including politically motivated cases, have also described pressure from prison officials or investigators to sign military contracts and go to war. Some reportedly remain outside detention facilities but are subject to travel restrictions or house arrest.

The concern is spreading beyond Russians traditionally targeted by the Kremlin, such as journalists, human rights advocates and anti-war activists. According to the coordinator, more people without such backgrounds are now considering leaving the country.

Requests from Russians seeking to travel to Georgia and Armenia, where they can enter without visas, and then pursue legal residence in the European Union through ordinary procedures have risen sharply.

Leaving Russia has become more difficult since the Unified Register of Military Records was introduced in May 2025. Once an individual receives a summons and is entered into the system, restrictions on international travel can become considerably harder to avoid.

“There is a high likelihood that their departure will also be restricted from Belarus,” the inTransit coordinator said.

“Now people understand that, in the event of a new mobilisation wave, they may simply be left with no way to leave and will find themselves locked in.”

Moscow bleeding troops

Ukraine’s General Staff and the US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies estimate that Russian military losses since the full-scale invasion began in February 2022 have reached roughly 1.4 million personnel. CSIS estimates that as many as 450,000 Russian troops may have been killed.

The think tank estimates that Russia has been losing more than 30,000 personnel each month in 2026, approximately 3,000 more than the estimated 27,000 new contract soldiers it recruits monthly.

CIA Director John Ratcliffe said on 15 July at a defence forum in Pennsylvania that the average life expectancy of a newly recruited Russian soldier on the Ukrainian front is between 20 and 30 minutes.

The Kremlin has generally avoided providing a full account of Russia’s battlefield losses.

Russian officials, meanwhile, have rejected claims that another mobilisation is being prepared. “We do not need mass mobilisation at the moment; it is neither planned nor expected,” Russia’s permanent representative to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, said on Friday. He added, “As far as I know.”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Tuesday dismissed reports of mobilisation preparations, describing them as efforts to “stir up the situation ideologically” within Russia.

Russia announced a “partial” mobilisation on 21 September 2022. No official decree formally terminating that mobilisation has been issued.