The United States appears to be gaining the upper hand in the battle for the Strait of Hormuz, with U.S. officials saying American military operations have significantly reduced Iran’s ability to control the vital waterway.

The strait has been one of Iran’s most important sources of leverage since the war began in late February. What started as a campaign to weaken Iran’s missile capabilities and dismantle its remaining nuclear program has increasingly become a broader struggle over one of the world’s most critical energy routes.

U.S. officials say the changing situation in Hormuz could represent a major turning point in the conflict. They believe increased shipping through the waterway could gradually ease pressure on global energy markets while potentially giving Washington greater leverage in negotiations with Tehran.

“That sucker is open. The Iranian response is very mild. They don’t want us to go back at them. That’s the whole ball game. The rest doesn’t matter,” President Trump told Axios in a phone interview on Thursday.

When the war began, the Strait of Hormuz remained open and oil continued flowing normally to international markets. Brent crude was trading at roughly $72 a barrel at the time.

Two Israeli officials said the decision to close the waterway was initiated by then-commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, General Alireza Tangsiri.

Iran announced within the first 72 hours of the war that it was closing the strait and warned that tankers attempting to pass through would be attacked. Israeli and U.S. officials said Tangsiri also ordered naval mines to be placed in the Traffic Separation Scheme, the main international shipping route through the strait.

Tangsiri was killed three weeks later in an Israeli airstrike in Bandar Abbas, Iran.

The combination of attacks on commercial vessels and the threat posed by naval mines brought shipping through the strait to a near standstill. Brent crude subsequently climbed as high as $126 a barrel.

Rising U.S. gasoline prices and mounting pressure on global energy markets were among the factors behind Trump’s decision to agree to a ceasefire on April 8. The economic disruption was also a central element of the pressure Iran had sought to impose.

Reopening the strait became a key part of a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding signed two months later. But the waterway never returned completely to normal, and the agreement eventually collapsed.

After the MOU fell apart, the U.S. military began a unilateral effort to restore access through the strait. Working with the United Arab Emirates, American forces began escorting ships through the southern channel while providing air protection and intercepting Iranian drones and cruise missiles.

A two-week U.S. bombing campaign also weakened the IRGC’s ability to attack vessels moving through the waterway. At the same time, Navy divers, SEALs, underwater and surface drones, and private contractors participated in an extensive operation to locate and remove mines.

The United States also restored a blockade of Iranian ports.

Although shipping and oil exports remain well below pre-war levels, U.S. officials say conditions in the strait have improved substantially. Iran has lost much of its previous control, while American forces now effectively control most of the waterway.

Iranian forces continue to fire at ships, but their ability to hit vessels accurately appears limited. A U.S. official said only 2% of ships that passed through the strait over the past month were struck.

More than 200 mine-like objects have been removed from the main shipping lane. U.S. officials say just 11 were confirmed to be actual mines, with only a few having been properly deployed.

Traffic through the southern channel has also increased in recent weeks. U.S. officials say between 20 and 30 tankers are now passing through each night, carrying an average of 9 million to 10 million barrels of oil. That represents approximately half of the pre-war volume.

“We achieved a major milestone in the Strait of Hormuz. Internationally recognized sea routes in the strait are free of Iranian sea mines. Bottom line: Today international shipping lanes are open and momentum is building,” CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper said in a video posted Thursday night.

Despite the U.S. assessment, some oil analysts and tanker-tracking companies remain skeptical about the reported shipping volumes. U.S. officials maintain that outside estimates are undercounting the amount of traffic moving through the strait.

Reports of oil tankers being struck by projectiles have also continued to raise questions about the safety of commercial shipping, even as Washington maintains that the route is becoming increasingly secure.

The U.S.-backed effort to restore energy shipments is showing signs of gaining momentum. The UAE, Bahrain and Kuwait have already joined the operation, while Saudi Arabia is expected to participate as well.

U.S. officials are also hoping Qatar will soon begin sending liquefied natural gas tankers through the U.S.-protected route.

Washington hopes to expand the main shipping channel by the middle of September so that at least 50 ships can travel into and out of the Gulf each night. The longer-term objective is to restore oil exports to between 60% and 70% of pre-war levels.

Meanwhile, signs of renewed diplomatic activity are emerging. Two regional sources told Axios that Iran has shown greater interest in negotiations in recent days.

The commander of Pakistan’s army traveled to Tehran on Sunday in an effort to revive mediation between Washington and Tehran. Oman’s foreign minister later visited Tehran to discuss the Strait of Hormuz.

Qatar’s prime minister, whose country has played a major mediating role between Iran and the United States, also traveled to Tehran on Thursday at Iran’s request, according to the regional sources.

Iran has publicly maintained its existing negotiating position, calling on the United States to implement the MOU and agree to terms for reopening the strait.

Trump, however, says he is not currently interested in negotiating with Iran.

“I don’t want to meet, they do. In fact, they are begging to make a deal,” Trump wrote on Truth Social Thursday.

Despite Trump’s public position, White House envoy Steve Witkoff continues to communicate with Qatar and other intermediaries.

U.S. negotiators are examining whether the blockade, broader economic pressure campaign and growing American influence over the Strait of Hormuz can force Iran to moderate its demands.

U.S. officials believe the changing balance of power in the waterway has strengthened Washington’s position ahead of any future negotiations.

The Trump administration also views the June 17 MOU, which partly addressed the Strait of Hormuz, as no longer relevant. Separate discussions between Oman and Iran over new arrangements for managing the waterway are likewise being treated by U.S. officials as a secondary matter.

For now, the battle over Hormuz appears to be shifting in Washington’s favor, with the United States seeking to turn increased control of the strategic waterway into both an economic advantage and greater leverage over Iran.