For most Israelis, the fear of another October 7 is not confined to Gaza. A new poll finds that 77% worry Palestinian Authority security forces could carry out a similar large-scale terrorist attack from Judea & Samaria. Among Jewish respondents, that figure rises to 86%.

The survey, released by the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs (JCFA), also found substantial opposition to Palestinian statehood: 67% of Israelis overall, including 75% of Jewish Israelis, oppose establishing a Palestinian state along the 1967 lines. Conducted with Lazar Research, the poll surveyed a representative sample of 703 respondents.

The findings come as Defense Minister Israel Katz issued an explicit warning about the consequences of PA security forces turning their weapons against Israel.

Katz said he and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have instructed the IDF to prepare for an “all-out war” if PA security institutions or affiliated groups launch an October 7-style attack against Israeli troops and Jewish communities, or Israel knows with certainty that such an assault is about to begin. The threatened campaign would target senior PA officials, its security apparatuses and terrorist infrastructure throughout Judea & Samaria.

He also described targeted killings of senior figures, evacuating residents from towns and villages used for terrorist activity, and maintaining an Israeli military presence in those areas. These were conditional preparations, not an announcement that such a campaign had begun.

The distinction matters because PA security forces have historically cooperated with Israel against Hamas and other armed groups. A coordinated assault by those institutions would represent a far broader security breakdown than an attack by an individual terrorist.

An earlier JCFA study by retired IDF Lt. Col. Maurice Hirsch argued that the PA’s security establishment has expanded far beyond the force envisioned under the Oslo Accords.

Hirsch estimated approximately 70,000 personnel overall, compared with the agreement’s 30,000-person ceiling, including more than 50,000 in Judea & Samaria. His report also alleged that the forces possess armored vehicles and heavier weapons, including rocket-propelled grenades and shoulder-fired missiles. Those are the think tank’s assessments, not independently confirmed IDF figures.

The study’s central concern is proximity: it outlines four hypothetical approaches to Israeli population centers, roughly 22 kilometers long, arguing that a coordinated assault could put large civilian populations at risk within a short distance.

Neither the poll nor Katz’s statement establishes that the PA has ordered such an attack. What they show is widespread public alarm alongside an explicit Israeli red line: a PA-led assault, or certain knowledge that one is imminent, would bring a campaign against the institutions behind it.