President Donald Trump predicted Monday that oil prices will fall dramatically once the United States wins its war with Iran, saying gasoline could initially decline to $3 a gallon before ultimately dropping below $2.
Trump made the forecast in a Truth Social post Monday evening as energy markets remained under intense pressure from the conflict, with crude oil prices climbing to six-week highs and American motorists paying record Labor Day gasoline prices.
“Oil prices will drop precipitously, like everything else is dropping (but more!), when we WIN the war with Iran. Three Dollars a gallon, but ultimately, below Two Dollars a gallon. It will all happen quickly, and Iran will never have a Nuclear Weapon. MAGA! President DJT,” Trump wrote.
The president did not provide a timetable for his prediction or detail the market conditions he believes would be necessary to push gasoline below $2 a gallon. His forecast represents a steep decline from current prices: regular gasoline averaged roughly $4.14 nationwide over Labor Day weekend, nearly $1 higher than a year earlier and the highest Labor Day average on record.
Trump’s comments also came as crude prices moved in the opposite direction. Brent crude settled Monday at $97.31 a barrel, its highest closing level since July 24, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude finished at $92.65. The increases have been driven by renewed fears that escalating military action between the United States and Iran could further disrupt global energy supplies.
The war, which began with U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran on February 28, has had a major impact on energy markets, particularly because of disruptions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil-shipping routes. Roughly 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products passed through the strait each day in 2025, accounting for approximately one-quarter of global seaborne oil trade.
Tensions surrounding energy infrastructure have intensified in recent days. Iran has warned that oil and gas facilities and U.S.-linked energy interests across the Persian Gulf could be targeted if Washington launches additional attacks, while shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed amid fears of further retaliation.
The uncertainty has contributed directly to higher prices at American pumps. In addition to the Iran conflict, U.S. gasoline markets have faced refinery constraints, extreme summer heat and other global supply disruptions. Diesel prices reached approximately $5.85 a gallon over Labor Day weekend, according to reporting on current fuel markets.
Trump has repeatedly argued that the surge in energy prices caused by the conflict will reverse once hostilities end and normal oil shipments resume. In May, he said gasoline and crude prices would “drop like a rock” following the war’s conclusion and later predicted that prices would return to levels below those seen before the fighting began.
Energy analysts generally agree that ending the conflict and restoring substantial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz would put downward pressure on oil and gasoline prices, but some have questioned how quickly prices could fall and whether gasoline could reach the levels Trump has predicted.
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, previously said that reopening the strait would likely begin pushing prices downward relatively quickly, but that normalizing oil flows would take several weeks. He said returning all the way to prewar gasoline prices could take considerably longer.
Other analysts have similarly cautioned that damage to supply networks, depleted inventories and the time required for shipments to reach refiners and consumers could prevent pump prices from immediately returning to their prewar levels. Abhi Rajendran of Rice University’s Baker Institute previously said he did not expect $3-a-gallon gasoline “anytime soon,” even following a resolution of the conflict.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration earlier projected an average gasoline price of $3.88 per gallon for 2026 and $3.62 in 2027, although those forecasts depend heavily on assumptions about the restoration of oil production and shipping patterns in the Persian Gulf.
Trump’s latest prediction nevertheless goes substantially further, suggesting that an American victory could eventually produce gasoline prices not seen nationwide since the extraordinary collapse in energy demand during the COVID-19 pandemic.
For now, markets remain focused on developments in the Middle East. Monday’s crude-price surge reflected concerns that additional attacks on tankers, energy infrastructure or shipping routes could deepen the global supply disruption before any postwar decline in prices begins.
{Matzav.com}