Republican Bruce Blakeman is trailing Gov. Kathy Hochul by fewer than four percentage points in a new poll commissioned by his campaign, offering a sharply different picture of the New York governor’s race than an independent Siena University survey released last month.

The McLaughlin & Associates survey has Hochul ahead of Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, 49.6% to 45.7% among likely voters, with 4.7% undecided. The poll surveyed 800 likely voters between Aug. 27 and Aug. 31.

The campaign-commissioned poll also found considerable dissatisfaction with Hochul, with 55% of respondents holding an unfavorable view of the Democratic governor as she seeks another term.

“The majority of voters (56%) believe that it’s time to give someone else a chance to do better, while only 38% say Kathy Hochul has performed well enough as Governor to deserve re-election,” pollster John McLaughlin said in a memo outlining the results.

McLaughlin argued that the numbers indicate an opening for Blakeman heading into the final weeks before the Nov. 3 election.

“The results show New York voters are dissatisfied with the direction of the state and Governor Hochul continues to miss critical benchmarks for a safe incumbent, leaving the opportunity for Bruce Blakeman to defeat Kathy Hochul this November.”

One challenge for Blakeman, according to his own campaign’s polling, is that a sizable portion of the electorate still does not have a firm impression of him. Thirty percent of likely voters said they either had never heard of Blakeman or did not have an opinion of him.

An independent Siena University poll released Aug. 12 found a wider gap. In that survey, Hochul led Blakeman 49% to 39% among likely voters. Siena surveyed 811 likely voters from Aug. 3 through Aug. 6, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points for its core questions.

The McLaughlin poll shows a pronounced geographic divide. Hochul leads Blakeman 60% to 33% in New York City, with 7% undecided. Blakeman leads 51% to 46% upstate and 53% to 43% in the suburbs.

Those numbers underscore the differing regional coalitions of the two candidates, with Hochul drawing her strongest support from New York City and Blakeman performing better outside the five boroughs.

The Siena poll also found a large geographic split, although its numbers differed. Hochul led Blakeman 64% to 19% in New York City, while Blakeman led 49% to 41% in the downstate suburbs. Siena found the two candidates running roughly even upstate.

The McLaughlin polling memo did not address President Donald Trump, who has endorsed Blakeman and has been featured heavily in Democratic attacks against the Republican nominee. Hochul’s campaign and the state Democratic Party have spent millions on advertising seeking to connect Blakeman politically to Trump.

Blakeman, meanwhile, has sought to make Hochul’s record in Albany the central issue in the contest.

“The Worst Governor in America is on the ropes, and New Yorkers have had enough. This November, they’re going to fire Kathy Hochul and elect me to make New York affordable again, keep families here, and build a new era where everyone has the opportunity to prosper,” Blakeman said.

Money could also play an important role during the campaign’s closing stretch. July campaign filings showed Friends for Kathy Hochul with $21 million on hand, while the state Democratic Party had another $22 million available. Blakeman’s campaign, the Nassau County Republican Party and other allied Republican organizations had raised approximately $11 million, while outside groups supporting Blakeman have also been raising and spending money.

The latest survey is not the first poll backed by Blakeman supporters to show a comparatively narrow contest. The Strong & Safe Super PAC, which is backed by Knicks owner James Dolan, previously released polling showing Hochul ahead 47% to 43%. Another survey conducted by co/efficient for the Coalition to Protect New York Taxpayers put Hochul ahead 47% to 41%.

The tighter campaign-aligned polls come against the backdrop of New York’s relatively close 2022 gubernatorial election. Hochul defeated Republican Lee Zeldin 53% to 47% that year. Zeldin now serves as President Trump’s administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

McLaughlin said Blakeman’s remaining challenge is introducing himself to voters who still know little about him.

“At this point in time, the incumbent Governor Kathy Hochul has very high negatives, Bruce Blakeman is favorable, and the close gap on the ballot is surmountable given the electorate’s desire for new leadership,” McLaughlin said.

“With enough resources, Bruce Blakeman can define himself to the electorate and defeat Kathy Hochul in November.”

Hochul’s campaign disputed the Blakeman campaign’s survey but declined a request from the New York Post to release its own internal polling.

“Bruce Fakeman is pushing fake AI-generated ads, fake government letters to solicit donations, and fake polls to cover up the fact that nobody in the real world is buying what he’s selling: a ‘100% MAGA’ puppet enabling ICE’s violence, running his own armed militia, and promising to gut Medicaid and raise your costs,” Hochul campaign spokesperson Ryan Radulovacki said.

The competing surveys leave significantly different snapshots of the race with less than two months remaining: Blakeman’s campaign poll puts Hochul’s advantage at 3.9 points, while Siena’s independent August survey put the governor’s lead at 10 points.