LANSING (VINnews) — Democrat Abdul El-Sayed holds a 1-point edge over Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan’s U.S. Senate race, according to a Fox News poll released Wednesday, leaving the contest inside the survey’s margin of error five weeks before Election Day.

El-Sayed, a physician and progressive who won a narrow Democratic primary in August, leads Rogers 50% to 49% among likely voters, the poll found. Among registered voters, El-Sayed leads 51% to 48%. The survey of 1,028 likely voters, conducted Sept. 24–28, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. ​

The result is the closest public survey of the race in recent weeks. A Marist poll released the same day put El-Sayed ahead 51% to 44% among registered voters. Other September surveys, including polls from Siena College, Emerson College and The Washington Post, have generally shown El-Sayed ahead by 2 to 5 points. ​

Rogers, a former U.S. representative, is seeking the open seat held by retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters. Rogers lost Michigan’s other Senate seat in 2024 to Democrat Elissa Slotkin by less than half a percentage point.

Both nominees are drawing near-unanimous support from their own parties. Rogers takes 95% of Republicans, including 99% of those who identify with the MAGA movement. El-Sayed takes 93% of Democrats. El-Sayed’s supporters are more locked in: 87% say they are certain of their choice, compared with 80% of Rogers’ backers. About 15% of likely voters say they could still switch.

The issues dividing the electorate track the national midterm debate. Voters most focused on immigration favor Rogers by 26 points. Those who call the cost of living extremely important favor El-Sayed by 13 points. About 4 in 10 respondents who say U.S. policy toward Israel is a top concern favor El-Sayed by 8 points, the poll found. El-Sayed leads among women, Black voters, college graduates, voters under 45 and union households. Rogers leads among men, rural voters, white evangelical Christians and white voters without a college degree. ​

Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who worked on the survey, said short-term forces favoring Democrats are partly offset by voter doubts about El-Sayed. “The bad news for Rogers is El-Sayed has made progress shoring up Democratic support and has room to grow given voter concerns about the economy,” Shaw said. ​

Conservative activist Ryan Fournier, founder of Students for Trump, highlighted the Fox numbers Wednesday night, calling Rogers within “major striking distance” and urging Michigan voters to back the Republican. Fournier wrote that a GOP win in Michigan would cost Democrats control of the Senate. ​

Republicans already hold the chamber, 53-47, after flipping the majority in 2024. Democrats must defend every seat they hold and flip four Republican seats to take control, according to the arithmetic laid out in recent national coverage of the midterms. A Rogers victory would widen the GOP majority. A Democratic hold would leave the party still short of a majority. ​

El-Sayed, a former Detroit health director, campaigned in the primary on Medicare for All, taxes on billionaire wealth and environmental rules. He defeated Rep. Haley Stevens in the Aug. 4 Democratic primary. About 11% of Stevens’ primary supporters now say they plan to vote for Rogers, the Fox poll found. ​

Favorability is close. El-Sayed is viewed positively by 47% of registered voters, Rogers by 44%. El-Sayed’s positive rating is up 5 points since August; Rogers’ is down 4. ​

Michigan voters will decide the race Nov. 3. Early voting is expected to account for roughly a third of the ballots cast.