Michigan’s U.S. Senate race is virtually deadlocked, with Democrat Abdul El-Sayed holding a one-point advantage over Republican Mike Rogers among likely voters in a new Fox News poll, 50% to 49%. The gap is within the survey’s margin of error.

Among registered voters, El-Sayed leads Rogers 51% to 48%, reversing an August Fox News result in which Rogers held a 51% to 47% advantage.

El-Sayed’s supporters also appear somewhat firmer in their choice. Eighty-seven percent say they are certain they will support him, compared with 80% of Rogers’ backers. Overall, 15% of voters say they could still change their minds before Election Day.

The poll found significant concerns surrounding both candidates. Thirty-nine percent of voters said they are extremely concerned that Rogers is too closely aligned with President Donald Trump, while 36% said they are extremely concerned that El-Sayed is too liberal.

The candidates also post similar favorability numbers, with 47% viewing El-Sayed favorably and 44% saying the same of Rogers.

El-Sayed performs especially well among women, Black voters, college graduates and voters under 45, while Rogers is stronger among men, rural voters, White evangelical Christians, married voters and White voters without college degrees.

Both candidates have consolidated most of their respective party bases. Rogers receives the support of 95% of Republicans, including 99% of MAGA Republicans and 88% of non-MAGA Republicans. El-Sayed has the backing of 93% of Democrats, including 98% of DSA Democrats and 90% of other Democrats.

Independents narrowly favor El-Sayed.

When voters were asked which party they would prefer to control the Senate, Democrats held a 52% to 47% advantage.

Still, some voters who backed El-Sayed’s Democratic primary opponent, Rep. Haley Stevens, have not moved behind him. Eleven percent of likely voters who supported Stevens in the primary now say they intend to vote for Rogers.

Economic issues remain a major factor in the contest. The cost of living ranks among the most important concerns for Michigan voters, while immigration is another issue producing a sharp divide between supporters of the two candidates.

El-Sayed narrowly defeated Stevens in the Democratic primary after a contentious campaign in which Israel emerged as one of the clearest areas of disagreement.

El-Sayed has repeatedly attacked Israel’s conduct in Gaza and has opposed unconditional U.S. military assistance to Israel.

In a recent television interview, he described Israel’s military actions as “bloodthirsty” and accused Israeli leaders of genocide.

In another interview, El-Sayed acknowledged that Hamas had committed war crimes while continuing to accuse the Israeli government of grave wrongdoing.

He has also repeatedly declined to directly say whether Israel has a right to exist when pressed on the issue, instead arguing that Israel already exists and redirecting the discussion toward U.S. policy and Palestinian rights.

In another interview, El-Sayed described Israel’s leadership as “as evil as Hamas.”

El-Sayed has also faced criticism over remarks he made following the March attack on Temple Israel in West Bloomfield Township near Detroit.

Authorities said the attacker rammed a vehicle into the synagogue complex in an assault that investigators later said was inspired by Hezbollah. The attacker died at the scene.

El-Sayed condemned the attack and antisemitism, but while discussing the circumstances surrounding it, he also said that “violence is a cycle” and that “hurt people hurt people.”

Critics argued that those remarks could be interpreted as offering an explanation or justification for the attack.

El-Sayed later apologized to members of the Michigan Democratic Jewish Caucus, acknowledging that his comments had been inappropriate in the immediate aftermath of the assault and stressing that there was no justification for terrorism.

The Fox News survey was conducted in late September among more than 1,200 registered Michigan voters, including more than 1,000 likely voters. The margin of error among likely voters is approximately three percentage points, leaving the El-Sayed-Rogers contest statistically tied.