JBizNews U.S. Market Opening Recap — September 30, 2026 | 10:00 A.M. ET

Wall Street opened higher Wednesday after the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge came in cooler than expected, giving investors their clearest reason in days to believe another interest-rate increase in October may not be necessary.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened at 51,424.84, up 74.9 points, or 0.15%. The S&P 500 opened at 7,688.99, up 18.1 points, or 0.24%, while the Nasdaq Composite opened at 26,892.80, up 95.3 points, or 0.36%. 

The morning’s economic reports delivered an unusual combination: inflation was softer than feared, hiring was stronger than expected, consumer spending surged, economic growth was revised sharply higher — and the trade deficit widened considerably.

The most important number was inflation. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index rose 0.3% in August, below economists’ 0.4% forecast. Annual PCE inflation held at 3.4%. Core PCE, which strips out food and energy and is closely watched by the Federal Reserve, rose 0.2% for the month and 3.0% from a year earlier. Both July’s headline and core readings were revised lower. 

That was enough to materially change interest-rate expectations. Markets now assign only about a 37% probability of another Fed rate increase in October, down from roughly 45% immediately before the PCE report and far below the roughly 70% probability investors were pricing earlier this week. 

But consumers are hardly shutting their wallets. Consumer spending surged 0.9% in August, following a downwardly revised 0.1% increase in July. That matters because household spending represents more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. Americans may be deeply pessimistic about inflation and borrowing costs, but so far they continue to spend. 

The labor market also came in stronger than expected. ADP reported that private employers added 90,000 jobs in September, up from a downwardly revised 36,000 in August and ahead of economists’ forecast for 70,000. Friday’s much more important government employment report is expected to show about 90,000 total jobs added and unemployment holding near 4.1%. 

The growth numbers were even stronger.

The Commerce Department revised second-quarter GDP growth up to a 2.2% annualized rate from the previously reported 1.5%. Economists had expected no revision. Consumer spending was upgraded to a strong 3.8% growth rate, while business equipment investment remained in double digits, driven in part by the enormous expansion of AI infrastructure. 

A measure that strips out trade, inventories and government spending showed private domestic demand growing at a 4.6% annualized pace, while Gross Domestic Income rose at a revised 2.6% rate. In other words, Wednesday’s data does not describe an economy slipping toward recession. It describes an economy growing faster than previously thought while inflation is showing just enough improvement to give the Fed room to wait. 

The weaker part of the morning came from trade. The U.S. goods trade deficit widened 11.5% in August to $132.6 billion, far above the roughly $115 billion economists expected. Goods imports jumped $17.4 billion to $336.1 billion, including a 16.6% surge in industrial supplies and a 4% increase in capital goods as businesses continued spending heavily on AI infrastructure. 

Goods exports rose as well, but not nearly enough to keep pace. Trade has now subtracted from U.S. economic growth for three consecutive quarters. Inventories could cushion some of that drag, with wholesale stocks rising 0.7% and retail inventories increasing 0.3% in August. 

The bond market reacted immediately to the softer inflation reading. The 10-year Treasury yield slipped toward roughly 5.21%, retreating from Tuesday’s multidecade highs, while the 30-year yield also moved lower. Yields remain exceptionally high, but even a modest retreat matters for mortgages, corporate financing and technology-stock valuations. 

Oil remains volatile. The expiring November Brent contract was trading around $103 a barrel, while the more actively traded December contract was closer to $96 and West Texas Intermediate hovered near $90. Middle East exports have been recovering, but uncertainty over Iran and U.S. sanctions continues to keep an unusually large geopolitical premium in energy markets. 

Several individual stocks are making significant moves.

Boeing rose roughly 2.5% to 3% after winning a $20 billion U.S. Navy contract to develop the next-generation F/A-XX stealth fighter, beating Northrop Grumman. The program could ultimately grow to hundreds of billions of dollars as production expands, making it Boeing’s second major sixth-generation fighter win after its F-47 contract for the Air Force. Northrop Grumman shares fell roughly 3.5%. 

Hewlett Packard Enterprise jumped more than 5% after raising its long-term networking growth outlook and announcing a $1.2 billion order from cloud provider Vultr for AMD-powered server racks. The deal is another reminder that AI spending is moving well beyond Nvidia chips into networking, servers, storage, cooling and data-center infrastructure. 

Robinhood rose about 5% after announcing plans for round-the-clock weekend trading in selected U.S. stocks, along with AI-powered trading agents, perpetual futures and new earnings-related prediction products. The brokerage is pushing aggressively toward a market in which retail investors can trade almost continuously rather than only during traditional exchange hours. 

On the downside, Cal-Maine Foods fell roughly 7% to 8% after quarterly sales dropped about 40% as egg prices retreated sharply from previous highs. Conagra slipped roughly 4.5% despite beating profit and revenue estimates as volumes fell 2.1% and management warned that inflation-weary consumers are increasingly trading down to cheaper private-label products. 

The biggest corporate event still ahead comes after the closing bell.

Micron Technology reports earnings Wednesday afternoon, giving investors another important test of the AI spending boom. Memory chips have become a critical bottleneck for AI systems, and Micron has been one of the market’s biggest beneficiaries as demand for high-bandwidth memory dramatically exceeds available supply. 

Investors should watch three things through the remainder of Wednesday.

First is the 10-year Treasury yield. If cooler PCE inflation keeps the yield moving away from this week’s 5.29% high, technology and other rate-sensitive stocks could gain additional breathing room.

Second is the Fed. Inflation is still well above the central bank’s 2% target, but Wednesday’s data has changed the immediate calculation. With core inflation softer than expected and New York Fed President John Williams saying there is “no urgency” for another increase, October is no longer looking like an automatic rate hike.

Third is Micron after the bell. A strong outlook would reinforce the argument that the enormous AI capital-spending cycle remains intact. Any sign that memory demand, pricing or customer commitments are slowing would have implications far beyond Micron.

Wednesday morning’s economic picture comes down to a surprisingly favorable combination for Wall Street:

Inflation was softer than expected. Hiring was stronger than expected. Consumer spending surged. And GDP was revised sharply higher.

For now, investors are getting something they rarely receive at the same time: stronger growth without a worse inflation surprise.

That is why stocks opened higher.

JBizNews Desk | New York

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