NEW YORK (VINnews) — Democrat Cait Conley leads Republican Rep. Mike Lawler by 2 percentage points in New York’s 17th Congressional District, according to a poll released Thursday, a margin well inside the survey’s margin of error with about four weeks left before Election Day.

The PIX11/Emerson College Polling survey of 400 likely voters, taken Sept. 27-29, found Conley at 48% and Lawler at 46%, with 7% undecided. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. It is the first public poll released this cycle in the suburban Hudson Valley seat, which takes in all or parts of Rockland, Putnam, Westchester and Dutchess counties.

The Nov. 3 contest is being watched nationally as one of the races that could help decide which party controls the House in 2027. Lawler, a former state assemblyman, is seeking a third term. Conley, a U.S. Army veteran and West Point graduate who worked at the Department of Homeland Security during the Biden administration, is making her first run for office after winning a five-way Democratic primary.

Enthusiasm splits by intensity. Voters who said they are “very excited” to cast a ballot favor Conley, 52% to 45%. Those who said they are “somewhat excited” break for Lawler, 52% to 40%.

Crossover support has narrowed for the incumbent since Emerson’s October 2024 survey of the same district, when Lawler faced former Rep. Mondaire Jones. In that poll, 20% of Democrats backed Lawler and 4% of Republicans backed Jones. This year, Democratic support for Lawler is 12%, while 10% of Republicans say they support the Democrat, Emerson College Polling executive director Spencer Kimball said.

“In the 2024 Emerson NY-17 poll, 20% of Democrats supported Rep. Lawler, while 4% of Republicans supported the Democrat, Mondaire Jones,” Kimball said. “In 2026, Democratic crossover support for Lawler fell eight points to 12%, while Republican support for the Democrat rose six points, to 10%.”

Lawler’s image is nearly even: 45% view him favorably and 46% unfavorably. In the October 2024 Emerson poll, those figures were 52% favorable and 42% unfavorable. Conley is at 44% favorable and 35% unfavorable, with 22% saying they have not formed an opinion.

The economy — jobs, inflation and taxes — was named the top issue facing the state by 31% of respondents. “Threats to democracy” followed at 23%, immigration at 13% and housing affordability at 12%.

On other measures in the survey, 52% disapprove of U.S. military action in Iran, 37% support it and 11% are unsure. President Donald Trump’s job approval in the district is 43%, with 53% disapproving. Gov. Kathy Hochul, who is seeking a second term, is at 40% approval and 49% disapproval. Kimball said Hochul’s approval in the district has risen from 26% in October 2024, though she remains underwater there.

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