Saudi Arabia is preparing a military campaign against Iran-aligned Houthi forces in Yemen, with plans reportedly including an advance along the coast to reopen the strategically important Red Sea shipping corridor or a wider assault involving several battlefronts. Regional and Western officials familiar with the discussions spoke to Reuters about the preparations.

The offensive could begin within the coming weeks. Yemeni forces operating under Saudi oversight are expected to carry out the ground operations, with Saudi aircraft providing air support, according to six individuals familiar with the plans.

Although Washington is already sharing intelligence with Riyadh to assist its military activities in Yemen, several regional and European countries have also provided defensive military assistance to Saudi Arabia. However, these partners are not expected to participate directly in the fighting, officials said. They spoke anonymously because of the sensitive security discussions.

Saudi Arabia first became directly involved in Yemen’s civil war in 2015, leading an Arab coalition supporting the internationally recognized government after Houthi forces captured the capital, Sanaa. A ceasefire reached in 2022 largely remained in place until this year, when the Houthis began launching missiles and drones at Saudi shipping and energy infrastructure amid the wider conflict involving Iran.

One of the principal goals of the proposed operation is to reverse recent Houthi territorial advances. Last month, the group moved south along Yemen’s coastline and took control of the Bab al-Mandab Strait, according to officials familiar with the preparations, including representatives from Yemen and Gulf states and Western diplomats. The planned effort has not previously been reported.

More Than 100,000 Yemeni Fighters Could Be Mobilized

Saudi officials are examining two potential military strategies, according to Gulf and Yemeni sources. One would concentrate on retaking the territory surrounding the Bab al-Mandab Strait. The alternative would involve a much larger campaign, coordinating offensives across several areas, including Al-Bayda, Marib, Taiz and Al-Jawf.

Depending on the operation’s size, more than 100,000 Yemeni fighters could potentially be assembled for the campaign, officials said.

Representatives of the Saudi and Yemeni governments, the Houthis and the US military did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

The Bab al-Mandab is the southern gateway connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden. It serves as a critical international shipping passage linking Mediterranean markets with Asia. Its importance has increased this year because the Iran conflict has effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, making alternative maritime routes particularly significant.

Saudi Arabia reportedly believes that meaningful peace negotiations with the Houthis cannot resume while the group controls Bab al-Mandab. Maintaining control of the passage gives the militants considerable influence over international maritime commerce, according to Western diplomats and a Gulf official.

Those familiar with the preparations offered different estimates for when the offensive might begin. Their projections ranged from sometime within the next week to a date following the US midterm elections in early November.

Michael Ratney, a former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia, said he anticipated a relatively contained military campaign rather than an operation on the scale of the Saudi-led intervention launched in 2015.

“As much as they want to vanquish the Houthis completely, they also need to get back to status quo ante before the Houthis controlled territory along Bab al-Mandab,” he added. “Ideally, it would be a fairly limited operation to retake coastal areas and get back to normal maritime traffic.”

Following the weakening of Hezbollah in Lebanon through Israeli military operations over the past three years, the Houthis have emerged as Iran’s most significant regional partner, according to the report.

A Saudi military campaign against the organization would introduce another major confrontation into a region already experiencing sustained conflict since the Hamas-led October 7, 2023, attacks against Israel and the subsequent US-Israeli war against Iran.

US, Turkey and Pakistan Provide Military Assistance

The United States, Saudi Arabia’s most influential international partner, is supplying military advisers and intelligence to assist Saudi air operations in Yemen. This reportedly includes information used for identifying potential targets, according to a Western diplomat.

Nevertheless, American involvement may remain limited. Reuters previously reported that US President Donald Trump rejected requests from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for more direct American military participation, including conducting airstrikes.

Turkey and Pakistan have also supplied military equipment being used by Saudi Arabia in Yemen, according to Pakistani and regional officials. The assistance follows a joint defense agreement signed by Riyadh with the two countries last month.

A Pakistani government official said Islamabad sent four cargo aircraft to Aden last month. Their shipments reportedly included air defense equipment, light artillery, drones and systems designed to counter unmanned aircraft. Aden serves as the headquarters of Yemen’s Saudi-supported government.

A second Pakistani official, a Gulf official and a Western diplomat said Pakistani military advisers are working alongside Saudi personnel to assist Yemeni forces. Turkish-made drones, which Saudi Arabia acquired before the current conflict, have also been operating over Yemen, they said.

Protecting Saudi oil installations and other critical infrastructure from potential Houthi missile and drone attacks remains a central concern for Riyadh as it considers expanding its military involvement. Regional officials said Saudi Arabia has approached several allied countries seeking additional defensive capabilities.

Pakistan has stationed between 30,000 and 40,000 troops in Saudi Arabia to help protect its land borders and strengthen defenses against missile and drone threats, according to the second Pakistani official. The deployment took place in several stages beginning last year, with additional personnel arriving following the latest escalation.

The official added that Pakistan has not made a decision to deploy its forces into Yemen for direct combat operations.

Neither Pakistan’s nor Turkey’s defense ministry immediately responded to questions about the military assistance being provided to Saudi Arabia.

France has separately announced plans to send troops and defensive equipment to Saudi Arabia to help safeguard Yanbu, an important port city on the Red Sea.

Divisions Among Yemeni Forces Could Complicate the Campaign

Any Saudi-backed ground offensive would depend heavily on a collection of Yemeni armed groups that have received weapons and training from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates during earlier phases of the civil war. Those factions remain divided after years of fighting and political disagreements.

Yemen analyst Mohammed Albasha warned that many of the forces opposing the Houthis still lack the organization and preparation needed for a prolonged military campaign against the group’s established military structure.

“Many anti-Houthi forces are still not organized or prepared for the kind of sustained offensive required to push back a disciplined Houthi military force. And they are being tested right now, as the Houthis apply pressure across several fronts at once,” he said.

The divisions became more pronounced last winter when UAE-supported southern factions attempted to expand their territorial control in eastern Yemen and announced plans for secession. Saudi-backed forces subsequently defeated them following a series of confrontations.

Ali Shihabi, a Saudi political analyst considered close to the government’s thinking, said the outcome of the proposed campaign would ultimately depend on the effectiveness of the Yemeni forces conducting the ground fighting.

“The priority so far has been to defend the positions on the ground and stabilize the front, but certainly they will be going on the offensive,” he said. “Success greatly depends on the quality of the performance of the local forces.”