IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir declared Sunday that Israel’s military doctrine is being reshaped around the possibility of another surprise war, warning that the IDF will no longer wait for an enemy threat to materialize before acting and will instead launch preemptive strikes against dangerous capabilities as they emerge.

Zamir delivered the warning at a major gathering of the IDF’s senior command at the Glilot base, where the military formally concluded its investigations into the failures surrounding the October 7 massacre and presented a series of changes intended to prevent such a catastrophe from happening again.

“We are building the IDF’s strategy with readiness for a surprise war, including the preemptive thwarting of severe threats as they develop, as our reference scenario – this is our operational compass,” Zamir declared.

“We removed threats; we are operating in all arenas, defending forward, and continuing to pursue our enemies everywhere. Our message is clear: Whoever threatens to harm us and builds the capabilities to do so – we will act in advance and strike them with a decisive blow.”

The new approach represents one of the central lessons the IDF says it has drawn from October 7. Rather than relying heavily on assessments of an enemy’s intentions, the military plans to increasingly base its readiness on what an adversary is actually capable of doing — including preparing for a multi-front surprise attack even if Israel’s deterrence and early-warning systems both fail.

Among the changes being implemented are significantly larger forces on standby and in reserve, stronger defenses around border communities, increased firepower and intelligence capabilities along Israel’s borders, greater independence for commanders in the field and changes in the way the Military Intelligence Directorate analyzes and issues warnings.

The IDF has already more than doubled the number of forces assigned to readiness and reserve duties across the various sectors. Forces and equipment are also being redistributed so that the military can respond more rapidly if a major attack develops unexpectedly in any theater.

The military plans to continually reassess potential threat scenarios rather than allow longstanding assumptions to become entrenched. Operational scenarios, defense plans, readiness levels and reserve deployments are to be updated as enemy capabilities change, with formal reviews every six months.

The IDF will also conduct additional surprise exercises and simulations of extreme scenarios designed to test how quickly forces can transition from routine operations to full-scale war, particularly when commanders have incomplete intelligence and are operating under conditions of severe uncertainty.

The conference brought together officers holding the rank of brigadier general and above from the IDF’s commands, branches and directorates. It opened with a moment of silence for those murdered and killed on October 7, after which senior officers reviewed the findings of the investigations, the corrective measures already underway and the mechanisms being established to ensure that the lessons are actually implemented.

“I chose to convene the IDF senior commanders forum today, on the eve of the national memorial day for the events of October 7th, as a message,” Zamir said.

“We are examining the status of implementing the lessons from the October 7th investigations, with recognition of the magnitude of the failure alongside the understanding that we must not sink into them, but rather learn, draw lessons, improve, and move forward. The events of October 7th continue to accompany us, and our duty is to ensure that they do not happen again.”

The completion of the October 7 investigations does not mark the end of the IDF’s internal examination of the war. Zamir announced that 2027 will be devoted to investigating the broader conflict and drawing lessons from the IDF’s operations in the different theaters over the past several years.

The next stage will include investigations into individual campaigns and fronts, including Operation Roaring Lion, followed by a broader military assessment intended to consolidate the lessons of the entire war.

Those lessons are being organized into four principal areas: strategic preparedness, operational readiness, force buildup and intelligence. Among the central goals is ensuring that the military can withstand and respond to a simultaneous surprise attack on several fronts without depending upon advance warning.

Zamir said one of the most important conclusions is that Israel must compensate militarily for its lack of geographic depth by maintaining a larger and more capable IDF.

“One of our greatest lessons is the need to expand our margin of security. The State of Israel is a geographically small country without territorial depth, and it faces multi-front threats,” he said.

“We must build the IDF’s force structure in light of all challenges and threats. The size of the IDF is our strategic depth. Therefore, we must expand the IDF and adapt it to its growing missions.”

A particularly significant moment at the conference came when Zamir presented a certificate of appreciation to Chief Warrant Officer V. of the IDF’s Unit 8200, whose warnings about Hamas preparations for a massive surprise attack before October 7 were dismissed by senior intelligence officials.

Before the massacre, V. had warned that Hamas possessed a concrete plan for a large-scale invasion. In an email sent to IDF officers in the days before the attack, she warned that “the sword is coming” and urged that the public be alerted while there was still time.

Her warning followed a Unit 8200 intelligence document produced on September 19, 2023, less than three weeks before the massacre, which reported that Hamas was training for a large-scale invasion of Israel. Her assessment was rejected by senior intelligence officers in the Gaza Division.

Zamir used the episode to stress that the IDF must fundamentally change a culture in which assumptions can become accepted doctrine and contrary assessments can be pushed aside.

“In our organizational culture, we must not allow people-pleasing discourse, intellectual tyranny, or the suppression of critical thinking,” he stated.

The military’s intelligence reforms will place renewed emphasis on the Intelligence Directorate’s fundamental responsibility to establish an accurate picture of reality and provide warnings. Commanders are also being instructed to distinguish more carefully between long-term strategic assessments and immediate tactical intelligence, while dissenting opinions and challenges to accepted assumptions are to receive greater consideration.

The changes are intended to address one of the most painful findings arising from October 7: critical pieces of information existed before the Hamas assault, but were interpreted through assumptions that ultimately proved catastrophically wrong.

Zamir acknowledged the magnitude of the IDF’s failure on the morning of the massacre while contrasting it with the military’s subsequent performance across the different fronts of the war.

“On October 7th, the IDF failed severely, but the IDF got back on its feet and proved itself to have a determined spirit, bringing about a historic and unprecedented multi-front victory,” he said.

Even as the military formally closes the chapter on its October 7 investigations, Zamir stressed that the current security environment leaves no room for complacency and that commanders throughout the IDF must remain prepared for another unexpected escalation.

“The entire IDF is in constant readiness. We are all on guard. It is our duty to prevent surprise and to prepare for surprise,” he said.

“We are in a period of tension and alertness, and each person in their own sector must be alert and prepared.”

{Matzav.com}