Gov. Kathy Hochul maintains a double-digit advantage over Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman with less than four weeks remaining before Election Day, but a new Marist poll shows the Nassau County executive leading among independent voters and running even with the Democratic governor in New York’s suburbs.

The statewide survey found Hochul backed by 53% of registered voters, compared with 42% for Blakeman, while 5% remain undecided. The 11-point margin nevertheless masks significant differences across regions and political affiliations that could shape the closing weeks of the campaign.

Among independents, Blakeman leads Hochul 49% to 42%, according to Marist. The two candidates are also deadlocked among suburban voters, with each receiving 48%.

Hochul’s commanding strength in New York City accounts for much of her statewide advantage. The governor leads Blakeman 69% to 24% among city voters. Upstate, however, the picture is reversed, with Blakeman holding a 51% to 45% advantage.

The poll also found a striking gender divide. Hochul leads among women by 29 percentage points, 62% to 33%, while Blakeman holds a narrow advantage among men, 51% to 47%.

Blakeman rejected the survey’s findings during a campaign appearance in Queens on Wednesday, accusing Marist of consistently producing results favorable to Democrats.

“The phony Marist poll by the woke university that always favors Democrats over Republicans,” he charged, before predicting he’ll get “record turnout” in New York City. “I’ve been in the South Bronx, Brooklyn, here in Queens many times just this week.”

Hochul, meanwhile, brushed aside questions about whether the latest numbers gave her reason to worry about the race.

“Being ahead by half a point or 1% is concerning. Double digits means something,” she told reporters Wednesday. “So, I’ll just let you all analyze that.”

The Marist result falls between several other recent surveys that have produced significantly different pictures of the race. A Siena poll released last month put Hochul ahead by nine points, 50% to 41%, while a Quinnipiac University survey released the same day gave the governor a much wider 19-point advantage, 58% to 39%, among likely voters.

The Quinnipiac findings differed notably from Marist on independents as well. Quinnipiac’s September survey had Hochul leading independent likely voters 51% to 45%, while the new Marist survey has Blakeman ahead among independents by seven points.

Another survey conducted in late September by Co/efficient showed Hochul leading 48% to 41%, with 11% undecided, placing her advantage at seven points. Taken together, the recent polling has consistently shown Hochul ahead statewide, although the size of that advantage has varied considerably depending on the poll.

The new Marist numbers also carry an echo of the 2022 gubernatorial contest. A Marist poll released during the closing weeks of that race showed Hochul leading Republican Lee Zeldin by 10 points. Hochul ultimately defeated Zeldin by roughly six percentage points, in what became New York’s closest gubernatorial election in decades.

Blakeman is seeking to build support in the closing stretch by focusing heavily on crime, taxes, affordability and immigration, while Hochul has sought to tie him closely to President Trump and national Republicans. Trump is scheduled to campaign with Blakeman in Syracuse on Friday as Republicans work to boost turnout in Upstate New York and several closely watched congressional districts.

The broader findings from Marist suggest Democrats retain an advantage in New York heading into the midterm elections. Asked which party’s congressional candidate they would support, 55% of registered voters chose the Democrat and 42% chose the Republican.

Independents were much more closely divided on the congressional ballot than in the governor’s race, with 49% supporting a Democratic congressional candidate and 47% backing a Republican. Democrats lead 73% to 25% in New York City and 51% to 47% in the suburbs, while Republicans hold a 52% to 45% advantage Upstate.

The survey also examined the extent to which President Trump is influencing voters’ congressional choices. Forty-four percent said their vote would primarily be a vote “against” Trump, while 22% said their vote would be in support of the president. Another 33% said Trump would have little or no effect on their decision.

Among independents, 49% said Trump was not much of a factor in determining their congressional vote.

Marist also found Trump with a 38% job approval rating among registered voters statewide, while 60% disapproved of his performance.

Economic concerns remain widespread among New Yorkers. Forty percent of those surveyed said their family finances had worsened over the previous year, compared with 18% who said their situation had improved. Another 41% reported little change.

Despite the competitiveness reflected among independents and suburban voters, most respondents believe Hochul will ultimately prevail. Sixty-nine percent told Marist they expect her to be reelected, compared with 27% who expect Blakeman to win.

The Marist survey was conducted from Oct. 1 through Oct. 4 among 1,361 registered New York voters using live telephone interviews, text and online responses. The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.

{Matzav.com}