NEW YORK (AP) — In his campaign to become the next governor of New York, Republican Bruce Blakeman has suggested Democrats might steal the election, played up fears about immigrant criminals and posted AI-generated videos depicting the state as dangerous and unaffordable.

And on Friday night, he’ll rally with President Donald Trump in Syracuse. It is not exactly a message that seems geared toward winning over moderate voters.

At a political moment where Republicans are hoping to capture centrists wary of an ascendent progressive left, Blakeman has instead embraced the president and his aggressive conservative tactics. The approach has puzzled some in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than 2-to-1.

“If his advertising to get the job is to champion Trump, it’s going to create a whole lot of problems,” said former Gov. David Paterson, a Democrat. He said Blakeman’s alliance with the president “could drive a lot of people who are in the middle over the edge.”

Blakeman, who serves as the Nassau County executive on Long Island, has framed himself as a bulwark against urban progressives, pushing policies related to transgender athletes and Trump’s immigration crackdown. After the election of Mayor Zohran Mamdani, Blakeman pledged to erect a wall of surveillance gear to protect his suburban county.

But Trump hasn’t exactly helped that message. While visiting New York City last month, the president was chummy with Mamdani, one of the country’s leading democratic socialists, and even expressed optimism about his work as mayor.

“Hopefully you’re going to be a great one,” said Trump, who grew up in Queens, where Mamdani first entered politics.

It’s unclear what Trump will get out of his trip to Syracuse with the clock ticking toward midterm elections where his party’s control of Congress is on the line. The most closely watched U.S. House race in the state is hours away, where Republican Rep. Mike Lawler is trying to fend off a challenge from Democratic candidate Cait Conley.

However, Trump has steered clear of political battlegrounds in his travels so far, focusing on red states and friendly crowds at a moment when Republicans worry that his unpopularity could drag down the party.

Blakeman says he doesn’t always agree with Trump
On the campaign trail, Blakeman argues he’s winning over Democrats and independents, painting himself as the moderate candidate in his race against incumbent Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul. He dismisses the idea that his closeness with the president could hurt his chances in blue New York.

“I don’t think it has an effect,” he said when asked about his relationship with Trump. “I’ve proved my independence over and over and over again. I make my own decisions. I call my own shots.”

Hochul has emphasized Blakeman’s ties to Trump — mirroring much of the Democrats’ national strategy for the midterm elections — hoping the president’s dismal approval ratings help to sink her Republican foe at the ballot box.

In an interview, Blakeman denied that he was aligned with the president on everything. “I am somebody who takes every issue and makes a decision based on good advice from smart people and common sense,” he said.

For example, Blakeman said of Trump, “he’s pro-life. I’m pro-choice.” He added: “I believe in a comprehensive guest worker immigration program. He hasn’t embraced that yet.”

Despite a long history of Republican leadership, the party has not fared well in recent statewide elections. No Republican has taken up residence in the governor’s mansion since former Gov. George Pataki lived there between 1995 and 2006. All levels of state government are firmly controlled by Democrats, and Democrats hold a wide majority of the state’s House seats as well as both Senate seats.

Blakeman emerged as the leading Republican candidate
The Republican field for the governor’s race this year was shaping up much differently before Trump waded in.

U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik, a Trump ally who represents a conservative district in northern New York, was expected to mount a strong candidacy but unexpectedly dropped out in December after Trump waffled on an endorsement.

U.S. Rep. Mike Lawler, who represents a swing congressional seat in New York’s Hudson Valley, had been teasing a statewide run but abandoned the plan not long after Trump endorsed him for reelection to the House, a move seen as a way to nudge Lawler back toward Congress.

With Stefanik and Lawler out of the picture, Trump swiftly backed Blakeman.

In the last governor’s race, Lee Zeldin, a former Long Island congressman and current Trump administration Environmental Protection Agency head, was able to come within about 6 points of upsetting Hochul by focusing on concerns about crime. Blakeman is recreating elements of Zeldin’s campaign on public safety even though crime rates have dropped significantly since then.

“I think over the years, the Republican Party in New York has spent more time mirroring what the national Republican Party is saying,” Paterson said.