Gur, the largest Chassidus within United Torah Judaism, is threatening to withhold its support from the UTJ list just 13 days before Israel’s election, senior figures in the Chassidus tell Belaaz. Its voting power is estimated at roughly one Knesset seat.

Unlike the other communities, Gur has yet to publish a declaration from the Gerrer Rebbe instructing his followers to vote for the list, and it has not set up campaign headquarters ahead of Election Day. Its representative, Yitzchak Goldknopf, who holds the No. 2 slot on the list, has not appeared at a single campaign rally.

The dispute stems from a last-minute split within Agudas Yisroel. Meir Porush and Elyakim Stark, the representative of Belz, broke away in a technical move and formed a separate party, which then joined the UTJ list.

The result is that Goldknopf, who until recently led all of UTJ, is set to represent a one-man faction in the next Knesset. Gur sees the move as affecting how positions will be divided after the election, if there are positions to divide.

Normally, the division of positions is settled before the lists are submitted. That did not happen this time, raising suspicions within Gur of a coordinated move between Yaakov Asher and Porush to leave Goldknopf without a significant role.

Senior figures in Gur tell Belaaz that they are demanding an agreement on the division of positions before the election. Otherwise, they say, the Chassidus will not issue an instruction to vote for UTJ.

Gur sources tell Belaaz that the Chassidim will vote either way. If not for UTJ, they say, a quiet instruction will go out to vote for Tzeva Shachor, a party campaigning for a sweeping IDF draft exemption for all frum Jews, in line with the Gerrer Rebbe’s position.

The threat could affect the political strength of the frum parties and the balance between the blocs, particularly Netanyahu’s chances of defeating the opposing bloc.

Could the Rebbe ultimately instruct his followers not to vote for UTJ? The 2008 Jerusalem mayoral race offers a precedent. Meir Porush ran as the agreed-upon frum candidate, but amid internal disagreements, Gur broke with much of the frum public and backed the secular candidate, Nir Barkat, despite harsh criticism from within the community.