Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and senior officials in United Torah Judaism are increasingly concerned that as many as 30,000 Ger chassidim could decline to vote in Israel’s October 27 Knesset elections, potentially dealing a serious blow to the chareidi party and Netanyahu’s chances of assembling a governing coalition.

The concern comes amid deep frustration within Ger over the government’s failure to secure legislation protecting yeshiva bochurim from military conscription, as well as a separate internal dispute within Agudas Yisroel over the composition of the United Torah Judaism electoral list.

According to reports aired Wednesday evening on Israel’s Channel 12, Ger has yet to mobilize its extensive electoral apparatus, despite the election being less than two weeks away. Unlike previous election campaigns, when the chassidus organized extensive efforts to bring voters to the polls, there have been virtually no public calls for participation, and local campaign headquarters have reportedly not been established.

The unusual silence has also been evident in Hamodia, the newspaper closely associated with Ger, where election coverage and appeals to vote have been noticeably absent.

Political officials fear that Ger could effectively conduct a quiet election boycott, with its members remaining home rather than voting for United Torah Judaism, the party they have traditionally supported.

Another possibility being discussed is that some Ger voters could cast ballots for minor parties with little chance of crossing the electoral threshold, effectively removing those votes from the allocation of Knesset seats.

Ger’s electoral strength is estimated at approximately 30,000 votes, representing roughly one Knesset seat, with the chassidus also exercising influence among other chassidic communities.

In an election in which the balance between competing political blocs could be determined by a relatively small number of votes, the loss of such a substantial voting bloc could have consequences extending well beyond United Torah Judaism itself.

Sources within Ger acknowledged to Channel 12 that considerable anger remains toward Netanyahu and indicated that the chassidus is currently making no concerted effort to encourage its members to vote.

Those sources suggested that Ger’s leadership is waiting to see whether political developments before Election Day will justify a change in its approach.

The dispute over the draft law is one major source of dissatisfaction.

Ger representative Yitzchok Goldknopf resigned as housing minister last year amid frustration over the coalition’s inability to advance legislation regulating the status of yeshiva bochurim.

His departure reflected a broader breakdown in relations between Ger and Netanyahu, with the chassidus taking an increasingly confrontational position toward government efforts to address the military draft issue.

Despite subsequent political discussions, Netanyahu has reportedly been unable to repair the relationship.

However, additional Israeli reporting Thursday indicated that the controversy involves more than dissatisfaction with the prime minister.

A significant internal dispute within Agudas Yisroel has also emerged following the decision by MK Meir Porush, representing Shlomei Emunim, and Eliakim Stark, representing Belz, to break away from Agudas Yisroel’s organizational framework shortly before the electoral lists were submitted.

The two established a separate faction within United Torah Judaism called Toras Chomas Yisroel, while retaining positions on the joint electoral list.

Porush was placed fourth on the United Torah Judaism list, while Stark was assigned the sixth position.

The arrangement has generated considerable opposition within Ger, where officials contend that the two representatives separated themselves from the authority of Agudas Yisroel’s institutions, including its Moetzes Gedolei HaTorah, while continuing to benefit from the electoral strength of the joint party.

According to Thursday’s reporting, some within Ger believe that a strong turnout by the chassidus could help secure an additional Knesset seat for United Torah Judaism, potentially enabling Stark to enter the Knesset.

One Ger source explained the calculation by pointing out that Goldknopf, who occupies the second position on the list, is expected to win his seat regardless.

The concern, according to the source, is that Ger’s votes could provide the additional support needed to elect Stark, despite the unresolved dispute over his faction’s relationship with Agudas Yisroel.

The controversy is particularly sensitive because Ger traditionally holds the senior position within Agudas Yisroel and has played a central role in organizing the party’s election campaigns.

Stark was selected as Belz’s representative by the Belzer Rebbe, replacing longtime MK Yisroel Eichler, who has served in the Knesset for much of the period since 2003.

Ger officials are reportedly seeking understandings regarding the distribution of political positions and the relationship between the factions before committing to a full election mobilization effort.

Among the demands being discussed is an arrangement with Degel HaTorah concerning the status of Porush and Stark, including the possibility of restricting future independent negotiations with their faction unless it returns to the Agudas Yisroel framework.

No agreement has yet been announced.

Despite the tensions, sources within Ger have indicated that a final instruction to vote for United Torah Judaism may still be issued before Election Day, as has been customary in previous elections.

Such a directive would ultimately depend on the decisions of the Gerer Rebbe, Rav Yaakov Aryeh Alter.

Political observers nevertheless warn that a last-minute call to vote might not produce the same level of participation as a fully organized campaign that had been operating for weeks.

The absence of election headquarters, public appeals and the usual mobilization efforts could make it difficult to generate the turnout Ger has traditionally delivered.

The developments come as both Shas and United Torah Judaism have declared that they will not support a future government unless legislation is passed protecting the status of yeshiva students.

Shas chairman Aryeh Deri reiterated that position Wednesday, insisting that his party would neither join nor support any coalition without an acceptable legislative arrangement.

For Netanyahu, the uncertainty surrounding Ger presents an additional political challenge as he attempts to retain the support of the chareidi parties while preparing for an election in which every Knesset seat could prove decisive.

As of Thursday, Ger had issued no formal instruction directing its members to abstain from voting, and discussions aimed at resolving the internal Agudas Yisroel dispute were continuing.

{Matzav.com}