
Eisenkot Leads Netanyahu in Two of Three TV Polls; Channel 14 Puts Likud at 30 Seats
Three television election polls broadcast in Israel on Monday evening, eight days before the October 27 election for the 26th Knesset, painted sharply different pictures of the race, with former IDF chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party opening a gap over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud in two of them, while a third put Likud at 30 seats and its right-wing bloc at a majority.
The surveys, aired by Channels 12, 13 and 14 ahead of the October 27 vote, are the first published since President Trump endorsed Netanyahu on Sunday. The Channel 12 and 13 polls were conducted before Blue and White chairman Benny Gantz announced his withdrawal from the race on Monday.
A Channel 12 News poll gives Yashar 24 Knesset seats to Likud’s 21, with former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s B’yachad party third at 14. The Joint List and the Democrats take 9 seats each; Shas, Yisrael Beiteinu and Otzma Yehudit win 8 each; Religious Zionism-Zehut and United Torah Judaism take 7 each; and Ra’am finishes above the electoral threshold with 5. Below the threshold sit former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael, at 2.8 percent for a third consecutive poll, and the Reservists-Economic party of Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha, at 2.1 percent, its first time below the threshold since mid-September. Gantz’s Blue and White registers 1.4 percent and Moti Leitner’s HaTzibur HaCharedi party 0.2 percent. The poll projects 55 seats for the Zionist parties opposed to Netanyahu, 69 with the Arab parties, against 51 for the coalition, leaving his opponents ahead but short of a majority without the Arab parties. Eisenkot widens his lead over Netanyahu on suitability for prime minister to 45 percent against 33, while Bennett leads Netanyahu 39 to 34 on the same question. The poll, conducted Monday by the Midgam Institute headed by Mano Geva together with iPanel among 507 respondents, has a margin of error of 4.4 percent.
A Channel 13 News poll shows a tighter race: Yashar 20, Likud 18 and B’yachad 14, a two-seat jump for Bennett, with the Joint List and the Democrats again at 9 each. Yisrael Beiteinu takes 8; Shas, UTJ, Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism 7 each; and Ra’am 6. Amcha Yisrael and the Reservists-Economic party each cross the threshold with 4 seats, while Blue and White and HaTzibur HaCharedi fall short. The Arab parties reach a record 15 seats combined. The channel’s bloc map puts the opposition at 51 seats against the coalition’s 50, with the Arab parties and the Hendel-Zelekha list between them; counted together, Netanyahu’s opponents hold 70 seats. Eisenkot leads Netanyahu 46 to 38 percent on suitability for prime minister. The poll, conducted Sunday among 1,016 respondents by The Index with Stat-Net, Project Midgam and Askaria, has a margin of error of 3.1 percent.
A third survey, by Channel 14, points in the opposite direction: Likud jumps to 30 seats against Yashar’s 19. B’yachad, Shas and the Democrats take 10 each; UTJ and the Joint List 8 each; Religious Zionism-Zehut and Otzma Yehudit 7 each; Yisrael Beiteinu 6; and Ra’am 5. The poll puts the right-wing bloc at 62 seats, a governing majority, against 45 for the left and 13 for the Arab parties. Below the threshold are the Reservists-Economic party at 2.6 percent, Amcha Yisrael at 2.2 percent, Noam L’Yisrael at 1.5 percent, Achi at 0.5 percent and HaTzibur HaCharedi at 0.3 percent. The same poll gives Netanyahu 56 percent on suitability for prime minister against Eisenkot’s 30, and a 54 to 46 lead in a head-to-head matchup. It was conducted Monday by NEXT DATA among 454 respondents, with data analysis by Shlomo Filber.
United Torah Judaism polls at 7 to 8 seats across all three surveys, while the new HaTzibur HaCharedi party remains below the electoral threshold in each, registering 0.2 percent in Channel 12’s poll and 0.3 percent in Channel 14’s.
The three networks use different pollsters and count the blocs differently; Channel 14’s surveys have consistently shown a stronger Likud than those of Channels 12 and 13.