A new survey of Israel’s chareidi electorate suggests that voter participation could climb sharply in next Tuesday’s Knesset elections, potentially strengthening the established chareidi parties while making it increasingly difficult for smaller political movements to cross the electoral threshold.

The survey, conducted by Super Data and published by Kikar HaShabbat, projects turnout among chareidi voters at approximately 88%, compared with 75% in a survey conducted roughly a week and a half earlier.

The findings come amid an intense campaign by rabbonim and chareidi political leaders to encourage voters to support the established parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, rather than independent lists challenging their leadership.

Pollster Avi Widerman said the projected increase in turnout could have significant consequences for smaller parties attempting to enter the Knesset.

According to his calculations, higher participation across the electorate could raise the number of votes needed to cross the electoral threshold from approximately 167,000 in the previous election to between 185,000 and 190,000.

That would present an especially difficult challenge for new chareidi parties seeking to win seats by attracting voters dissatisfied with the established political leadership.

The survey also examined the influence of rabbinic guidance on voting decisions, finding that 70% of respondents regard following the instructions of their rabbonim in elections as a religious obligation.

Another 33% said they would experience substantial feelings of guilt if they voted contrary to those instructions.

These findings suggest that rabbinic endorsements remain a major factor in shaping chareidi voting behavior, even as independent candidates attempt to appeal to voters frustrated by the handling of the military draft controversy and other issues affecting the Torah community.

The poll also reflects the growing importance of the military draft controversy in the election campaign. Arrests of yeshiva bochurim, uncertainty over the legal status of full-time Torah learners and the failure to enact new legislation have generated considerable frustration among chareidi voters.

Independent parties have attempted to capitalize on that dissatisfaction, arguing that the established chareidi factions have failed to deliver sufficient protection for the yeshiva world.

However, the renewed emphasis by gedolei Yisroel on voting for the established parties could complicate those efforts, particularly among voters who regard electoral participation as an obligation determined by their rabbonim.

The survey’s findings should nevertheless be interpreted cautiously. A stated intention to vote does not guarantee actual turnout, and the projected electoral threshold will ultimately depend on nationwide participation and the number of valid votes cast.

The complete survey methodology, including its sample size and margin of error, was not available in the material reviewed.

With the election approaching, the central question is whether the apparent increase in intended turnout will translate into stronger support for Shas and United Torah Judaism, or whether some voters will still direct their ballots toward alternative chareidi parties.

{Matzav.com}