Today, Brazilian voters are choosing between two sharply opposed political visions in a runoff that could move Latin America’s largest country further to the right and strengthen its ties with the United States. The election comes amid a wider regional trend favoring conservative leaders.

The contest pits left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who was convicted of plotting a coup. Flávio surprised observers earlier this month by finishing first in the initial round, outperforming polling expectations.

A Bolsonaro victory at age 45 would add to the electoral gains of Latin American conservatives aligned with US President Donald Trump. Lula securing another term would likely disappoint Washington, where relations with his administration have been strained by disagreements over trade and security.

Corruption allegations, economic pressures and claims of American interference have dominated the campaign. Another major issue is the 2025 conviction of Jair Bolsonaro over an alleged plot to overturn the 2022 election. Flávio has promised to secure his father’s release if he wins the presidency.

Trump has described the prosecution as a “witch hunt” and imposed 50 percent tariffs on Brazilian imports in 2025, explicitly connecting the measures to Jair Bolsonaro’s legal case. Although some tariffs were subsequently reduced, Trump introduced additional duties against Brazil this year, pointing to what he called unfair trade practices.

Lula has accused the Trump administration of favoring the Bolsonaro family in an effort to influence Brazil’s election. He has also condemned tariffs and other pressure tactics as bullying.

Despite declines in inequality and unemployment during Lula’s tenure, the president has struggled to persuade voters facing rising living expenses and substantial household debt. Persistent gang violence is another major concern shaping public opinion.

Bolsonaro has made economic frustration a central campaign issue and promised a tougher response to crime. His proposals include maximum-security prisons and chemical castration for people convicted of serious sexual offenses.