A special election-day exit poll conducted by the Chareidi news outlet Kikar HaShabbat found that 80% of Chareidi voters supported the two established Chareidi parties, United Torah Judaism and Shas, while alternative parties attracted smaller but potentially significant shares of the vote.

The survey, conducted Tuesday, October 27, in Chareidi communities, offered a rare look at voting patterns within the Chareidi sector itself, rather than the nationwide distribution of Knesset seats. According to the findings, United Torah Judaism received 48% of the Chareidi vote, followed by Shas with 32%.

The newly formed HaTzibbur HaChareidi party, associated with Leitner, received 7%, making it the largest alternative to the two traditional Chareidi factions among respondents. Otzma Yehudit, led by Itamar Ben-Gvir, followed with 5%, while the Tzeva Shachor (Black Color) party received 2%.

Religious Zionism also drew 2% of the Chareidi vote, according to the survey. Likud and Noam LeYisrael each received 1%, while parties belonging to the anti-Netanyahu political camp collectively attracted just 2%.

The results suggest that despite a contentious election campaign marked by disputes over military conscription, Chareidi political representation, and the emergence of alternative parties, the overwhelming majority of surveyed Chareidi voters continued to support Shas and United Torah Judaism.

At the same time, the combined 9% support recorded for HaTzibbur HaChareidi and Tzeva Shachor points to a measurable constituency willing to vote outside the established Chareidi party framework.

The survey’s findings are particularly noteworthy because the election campaign featured growing debate over whether the traditional Chareidi parties could retain their longstanding electoral support amid disagreements over their handling of the draft issue and other matters affecting the Chareidi community.

The Kikar HaShabbat survey also indicated that support for non-Chareidi right-wing parties was considerably greater than support for parties associated with the anti-Netanyahu camp. Otzma Yehudit, Religious Zionism, Likud, and Noam LeYisrael together accounted for 9% of respondents, compared with the 2% who supported parties in the opposing political bloc.

These figures describe voting preferences within the surveyed Chareidi population and should not be confused with the nationwide vote shares of the respective parties or their projected Knesset representation.

Kikar HaShabbat described the project as the first exit poll of its kind undertaken by a Chareidi news organization, designed specifically to measure how Chareidi voters divided their support among competing parties.

The survey was conducted through specially designated exit-poll stations at polling locations in Bnei Brak, Yerushalayim, and Beit Shemesh, supplemented by an online survey. The project was conducted in conjunction with the research organization Super Data.

Unlike conventional pre-election opinion polls, which ask respondents how they intend to vote, exit polls seek information from individuals who have already cast their ballots. Participating voters are typically asked to reproduce their selections anonymously, allowing researchers to estimate voting patterns before the official count is completed.

The researchers then analyze the responses, applying statistical adjustments intended to account for differences in turnout, geographic representation, and the demographic composition of participating voters.

The accuracy of such surveys depends heavily on the selection of polling locations and the willingness of different groups of voters to participate. Even a large number of responses can produce a misleading picture if certain communities or political constituencies are overrepresented.

Kikar HaShabbat acknowledged several potential sources of error, including sampling fluctuations, differences in participation rates among supporters of competing parties, and the possibility that voters might not accurately disclose their selections.

The timing of responses can also influence the results. If voters arriving during the final hours of polling differ politically from those who cast their ballots earlier, preliminary estimates may not fully reflect the final distribution.

The survey’s combination of physical polling locations and online participation introduces another consideration, since internet-based respondents may differ from voters who participate at designated exit-poll stations. The published report did not provide a sample size or margin of error, making it difficult to independently assess the precision of the individual percentages.

The findings also do not establish how many Knesset seats the smaller parties will receive. A party’s share of the Chareidi vote is different from its share of all votes cast nationwide, and parties must cross Israel’s electoral threshold to qualify for parliamentary representation.

That distinction is especially important for HaTzibbur HaChareidi and Tzeva Shachor. Although the two parties together attracted 9% of respondents in the Chareidi-focused survey, their ability to enter the Knesset depends on their nationwide results rather than their support within the Chareidi sector alone.

For Shas and United Torah Judaism, the findings indicate continued support among the voters surveyed, even as the emergence of competing Chareidi lists introduces additional questions about the future distribution of the community’s political vote.

The final official results will determine whether the support recorded by the smaller parties translates into parliamentary representation and whether the traditional Chareidi factions retain the electoral strength suggested by the exit poll.