Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is facing a widening credibility gap at home, as new polling shows a majority of Israelis rejecting his account of the decisions that preceded Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack.

A survey conducted this week for Zman Yisrael found that 51 percent of Israelis do not believe Netanyahu’s version of events laid out in a 55-page document he submitted to the state comptroller. Just 39 percent said they found his explanation credible, while 10 percent were unsure.

The document, made up of selectively released excerpts from internal deliberations, was meant to portray Netanyahu as consistently advocating tougher action against Hamas, and security officials as the ones urging restraint.

But subsequent reporting has undercut that narrative, revealing meetings in which Netanyahu sought to preserve calm in Gaza just days before the attack and intelligence warnings dating back years about Hamas’s invasion plans.

The result: a growing perception that the prime minister is managing blame as much as policy.

A separate Channel 12 poll published Thursday reached similar conclusions. Asked whether Netanyahu’s document had been selectively edited to obscure his role, 47 percent sided with the opposition’s claim, while 32 percent believed the prime minister.

The same survey found widespread pessimism about Israel’s war aims: nearly half of respondents said they do not expect Hamas to be fully disarmed, casting doubt on one of Netanyahu’s central promises.

Together, the numbers suggest that while Netanyahu retains a loyal base, his post–October 7 political reset has failed to persuade a majority of voters.

With elections required by October 2026 — and possibly sooner — the polling also points to a deeply divided electorate and no obvious governing majority. According to Zman Yisrael, neither the pro-Netanyahu bloc nor the opposition can currently assemble a clear majority without Arab parties, whose participation remains politically sensitive.

If Arab parties run separately, they would win 11 seats, leaving the opposition with 56 seats and the coalition with 53. If they unite as a Joint List, they would capture 15 seats, reshuffling the balance and weakening both major blocs.

In the fragmented scenario, Netanyahu’s Likud would remain the largest party with 28 seats, followed by a new party led by former prime minister Naftali Bennett with 20.

Other key players include Avigdor Liberman, Yair Lapid, Itamar Ben Gvir, and Benny Gantz, none of whom currently commands enough support to break the stalemate.

When asked how Israel should proceed if no bloc wins a majority, voters were split. Thirty-eight percent favored a unity government spanning both camps. Twenty-six percent preferred an opposition-led coalition backed from outside by Arab parties. Twenty-four percent said Israel should return to the polls yet again.

The only precedent for Arab party participation in government came in 2021–22, when Bennett and Lapid formed a narrow coalition that included Ra’am. The arrangement collapsed within a year.

Despite public doubts about his leadership before October 7, Netanyahu remains competitive in head-to-head matchups.
Against most rivals, he holds comfortable pluralities. But against Bennett, his edge is razor-thin: 38 percent chose Netanyahu, compared with 35 percent for Bennett, with nearly a quarter selecting neither.

The numbers suggest Netanyahu’s dominance is no longer assured, and that voters are increasingly open to alternatives.

Last month, Netanyahu dismissed speculation about early elections, calling them “the last thing” Israel needs. “We need stability,” he said.

But the polling suggests stability remains elusive. Two years after the deadliest attack in Israel’s history, voters are still searching for accountability — and many are unconvinced by the prime minister’s answers.

(YWN World Headquarters – NYC)