Senior figures inside Iran’s ruling establishment are maneuvering to secure their influence in a post–Ayatollah era, signaling growing anxiety about the country’s political future and the balance of power after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

According to a new analysis published Monday by the Institute for the Study of War, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Defense Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani are working to consolidate power and shape the regime’s direction ahead of an eventual leadership transition.

The assessment says rival factions within Tehran’s elite are now positioning themselves to influence future policies, a conclusion concurred on by analyst Hamidreza Azizi of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

The jockeying intensified after last June’s brief but destructive 12-day war with Israel, when the regime created a new Defense Council that operates independently of Iran’s traditional security bodies.

The move, analysts say, was pushed “at the insistence” of Ghalibaf and reflects a broader effort to reshape decision-making inside the government.

Details about the council’s autonomy have largely been suppressed, the report notes, to avoid exposing internal rifts at a time of heightened external pressure and domestic unrest.

“This is a real sign of a break,” said Roger Macmillan, a former director of the diaspora outlet Iran International. “It’s an indication of regime stability — or instability. This is huge.”

Macmillan said much of the information cited in the analysis appears to have originated from officials linked to Shamkhani, long viewed as a behind-the-scenes power broker.

“He’s trying to make himself out as the good guy,” Macmillan said, suggesting the effort may be aimed at protecting assets from Western sanctions. “These guys are survivors. If the regime starts to wobble, they’ll move for personal protection.”

Others see the maneuvering as less about rebellion and more about succession planning.

Annika Ganzeveld of the American Enterprise Institute said senior officials became increasingly uneasy during the June war, when Khamenei withdrew from much of his public role.

“It became clear that people needed to secure their place under future leadership,” Ganzeveld said. “Since then, factions have been vying for influence.”

Ghalibaf’s political trajectory has accelerated in recent months. A former Revolutionary Guards general, he emerged as a central figure after Israeli strikes killed several senior officials during last summer’s conflict.

He was subsequently given a more prominent role in wartime planning and has since adopted an increasingly hard-line posture toward the West.

Earlier this month, Ghalibaf led chants of “Death to America” and “Death to Israel” in parliament while wearing an IRGC uniform — a symbolic display of loyalty to the regime’s security establishment.

Iranian elites have long speculated that Khamenei could elevate Ghalibaf further, viewing him as a potential stabilizing figure in a turbulent transition.

“What we’re seeing is a system preparing for life after Khamenei,” Macmillan said. “And when that happens, loyalties shift, alliances break, and everyone starts protecting their own position.”

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