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Matzav

Average Tax Refund Up Nearly 11 Percent So Far This Filing Season

Feb 18, 2026·4 min read

Taxpayers are seeing larger refunds at the start of this year’s filing season, with early Internal Revenue Service data showing the average refund climbing 10.9 percent compared to the same point last year.

As of Feb. 6, the typical refund stands at $2,290, up from $2,065 during the comparable period in 2025.

The IRS indicated that the average is likely to increase further in the coming weeks because the current totals do not yet reflect millions of refunds connected to the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and the Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC).

Changes enacted under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed into law by President Trump, are expected to increase refunds for many Americans this year. An analysis referenced by the Republican-led House Ways and Means Committee projects that some filers could receive as much as $1,000 more.

At this stage, the average refund is $225 higher than it was a year ago, and that difference may expand as additional returns are processed.

The Bipartisan Policy Center cautioned in a January report that early-season figures can be misleading, pointing to past years when refunds initially appeared lower before rising as the filing period progressed.

The 2026 tax season officially began on Jan. 26. By Feb. 6, the IRS had processed roughly 22.3 million returns. That total is 5 percent below last year’s pace but accounts for only 14 percent of the 164 million filings the agency anticipates receiving.

In the previous filing year, the average refund amounted to $3,167, with approximately 63 percent of taxpayers receiving a payment. According to the IRS, most people who file electronically can expect to receive their refund within 21 days.

More than 7.4 million refunds had been distributed as of Feb. 6, compared to 8.1 million at the same point last year — an 8.1 percent decline.

The deadline to file federal income taxes is April 15.

It is typical for the average refund amount to fluctuate early in the season before increasing as more returns are completed.

One reason for that pattern is that the IRS is prohibited from issuing refunds tied to returns claiming the EITC or ACTC until after Feb. 15. In addition, returns filed by higher-income taxpayers, which tend to be more complex, often take longer to prepare and submit.

Data reviewed by the Bipartisan Policy Center shows that in recent years, the average refund has often surged in mid-February before leveling off somewhat as Tax Day approaches.

The IRS publishes the average refund in its weekly statistics rather than the median amount, meaning unusually large refunds can influence the overall figure.

President Trump has described this year’s filing period as potentially “the largest tax refund season of all time,” citing more than 100 revisions to the tax code included in his 2025 legislation.

Individual refund totals will vary widely, however.

Measures such as an increased standard deduction, an expanded Child Tax Credit and a new deduction for seniors are expected to lower tax liabilities by several hundred dollars for tens of millions of households, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center.

Other provisions are forecast to generate savings in the thousands for a narrower segment of taxpayers, including certain employees who earn tips or overtime pay.

Principal Asset Management, an international investment firm, estimates that the average refund could climb by nearly $700 to about $3,800 per filer in 2026.

The firm projects that middle- and higher-income households will benefit the most, potentially receiving around $1,000 more on average. Lower-income households, many of whom already owe little or no federal income tax, may see smaller increases — often less than $100 in additional refunds.

View original on Matzav