The Supreme Court on Friday curtailed a major portion of President Trump’s tariff program, a move that could lower projected costs for American families next year but likely derails his proposal to distribute $2,000 “tariff dividend” checks.

Before the ruling, households were expected to face significantly higher expenses due to elevated import taxes. The Yale Budget Lab had estimated that, with an average tariff rate of 16.9% in place, the typical U.S. household would pay an extra $1,300 to $1,700 in 2026.

In a 6-3 decision, however, the justices concluded that Trump went beyond his executive authority by invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to implement a series of steep tariffs tied to trade imbalances and fentanyl trafficking.

While certain other tariffs remain intact, eliminating those imposed under IEEPA is expected to meaningfully reduce the financial hit to consumers. John Ricco, associated director of policy analysis at the Budget Lab, told CNBC that the ruling could lower the projected additional burden in 2026 to roughly $600 to $800 — about half of earlier estimates.

Not all analysts agreed on the precise savings.

“I’m actually shocked that the number wasn’t a little higher on the financial burden to the average American household than $1,000,” Erik Rosica, sales supervisor at OEC Group New York, a global freight forwarding company, told The NY Post.

“I do agree that the impact of reversing them would hopefully halve it – but again, that’s only if people lower their prices,” Rosica told The Post.

Rosica questioned whether companies would, in fact, pass those savings on to consumers. He suggested that while businesses might reduce prices on lower-cost goods, they may be inclined to keep higher price levels in place where possible.

The Court’s decision also casts doubt on Trump’s plan to issue “tariff rebate” payments ahead of the midterm elections.

According to Rosica, the ruling effectively eliminates the revenue stream that would have funded the checks, though he added that “nothing’s off the table.”