Wall Street heads into the week ahead facing its busiest stretch of the summer, with the nation’s largest banks opening second-quarter earnings season, the government set to release fresh inflation figures, and renewed fighting between the United States and Iran hanging over global oil. On Friday, President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social that Washington had agreed to resume talks with Tehran but that the ceasefire reached in April was “over,” a message that leaves traders guessing about the path of crude just as earnings and price data land. Three forces will shape the days ahead: what the banks say about the economy, what June inflation reveals about the Federal Reserve’s next move, and whether the Strait of Hormuz stays open.

The banks lead off

The season starts Tuesday, when JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs all report before the opening bell. Because banks lend to nearly every corner of the economy, their results and their commentary on loan demand, credit quality, and consumer health serve as an early read on how businesses and households are holding up. Analysts expect a strong quarter overall: S&P 500 earnings are projected to climb about 24% from a year earlier on nearly 12% higher revenue, a forecast that has risen since April. JPMorgan, the largest U.S. bank, is expected to earn roughly $5.44 a share, up almost 10% from last year, while Bank of America is seen posting about $1.12 a share on $30.7 billion in revenue. Trading desks are believed to have had a solid three months, but investors will listen closely for any hint that commercial real estate or a softening job market is starting to strain credit.

Inflation and the Fed

The bigger market-mover may be prices. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the June Consumer Price Index on Tuesday, followed by the Producer Price Index on Wednesday. The stakes are high because inflation has been climbing again: the May reading hit 4.2%, its highest since April 2023 and the third straight monthly acceleration, driven largely by the energy shock from the Iran conflict. A hotter-than-expected June number would raise the odds that the Fed lifts interest rates before year-end, while a softer print would support recent comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh that price pressures are easing. Warsh testifies before Congress on Wednesday, giving markets a live look at his thinking days ahead of the central bank’s July 28-29 meeting. Other data fills out the week: retail sales and jobless claims on Thursday, industrial production and a preliminary read on consumer sentiment on Friday. A weak June jobs report, which showed just 57,000 payrolls added, has already put the strength of the consumer in question. Adding to the pressure, the 10% tariffs imposed under Section 122 are set to expire July 24, mid-season, leaving companies to weigh how much of the cost they can pass along.

Oil and the Iran risk

Hanging over all of it is the Middle East. The shaky ceasefire between Washington and Tehran, formalized in a June memorandum of understanding, unraveled this week after Iran attacked three commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The United States responded with waves of strikes on dozens of Iranian targets and reimposed oil sanctions; Iran fired back at U.S.-linked bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. The practical worry for markets is the strait itself, the channel through which a large share of the world’s oil moves. Traffic has slowed to a trickle, with roughly a dozen vessels passing in a recent 24-hour stretch against about 110 a day before the war. Oil has stayed relatively contained so far because tankers keep moving, but any further disruption could push energy prices higher, feed straight into inflation, and complicate the Fed’s job. Mediators from Qatar and Pakistan are working to restart negotiations, though Iran’s chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, warned Tehran is prepared for “all-out defense” if the fighting resumes.

Overseas data adds another layer, with China’s second-quarter GDP and a Bank of Canada rate decision both due Wednesday. For investors, the week is a test of a market that has climbed to records on optimism about artificial intelligence and steady corporate profits. Strong bank results and a tame inflation number would reinforce the case that the economy can absorb both higher rates and geopolitical shocks. A hot CPI or a fresh flare-up in the Gulf would remind everyone how quickly that calm can break.

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