PARIS (VINnews) – Marine Le Pen, the leader of France’s National Rally, has become the favorite to win the country’s next presidential election after a Paris appeals court reduced her ban on holding public office, clearing her path to run in 2027, betting markets and polls indicate.

The ruling, issued July 7, upheld Le Pen’s conviction for misusing European Parliament funds but shortened penalties in a way that made her eligible for the April 2027 vote. Le Pen promptly announced her candidacy and said she would appeal the decision to France’s highest court.

The appeals court reduced Le Pen’s ban on holding public office from five years to 45 months, with much of it suspended and backdated, meaning the effective period had already been served. She was sentenced to three years in prison — two suspended — with the remaining year to be served under house arrest with an electronic ankle tag, along with a 100,000-euro fine. Le Pen has said the appeal suspends the tag requirement, allowing her to campaign freely.

Le Pen, 57, who has run for president three times without success, is now leading or surging in opinion polls. A recent Ifop survey showed her at 36% in the first round, ahead of potential rivals, with projections of victory in a runoff. Polymarket betting odds also shifted sharply in her favor following the court decision.

The development marks a significant boost for the right-wing National Rally, which has gained traction on issues including immigration and national identity. A Le Pen victory would represent a major political shift in France and Europe.

President Trump previously drew parallels between Le Pen’s legal troubles and cases against him, describing actions taken against her as similar to efforts targeting him in America.

Le Pen has denied wrongdoing in the embezzlement case, which involved allegations of diverting EU funds intended for parliamentary assistants to pay party staff. She has vowed to continue fighting the conviction while pressing forward with her campaign.

The first round of the presidential election is scheduled for April 18, 2027, with a potential runoff on May 2. Much could change in the coming months, but Le Pen’s position has strengthened considerably in the wake of the court’s decision.