The battle over the Strait of Hormuz appears to be shifting sharply, with Iran losing significant control over the critical waterway as the United States expands its military presence and President Trump adopts a new strategy toward Tehran, according to a report in CNN.

Despite repeated claims by both Washington and Tehran that they control the strait, shipping data and developments on the water increasingly suggest that Iran’s ability to dictate traffic has weakened. More than 80% of vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz over the past two weeks have used the Omani route — a UN-authorized shipping channel that Iran strongly opposes — according to Kpler, which tracks vessels using transponders and satellite data.

Iran has attacked dozens of ships attempting to use the waterway through the north coast of Oman. But despite the danger, most vessels have continued to ignore Tehran’s demands and cross through the strait with the expectation of protection from U.S. naval forces.

“It increasingly looks like Iran has at least partially lost control of the strait,” Kpler crude oil analysis chief Homayoun Falakshahi said.

The change is particularly striking compared with a month ago, when Kpler observed virtually no shipping traffic through the Omani route. The sharp decline in traffic around Iran’s preferred route has also prevented Tehran from imposing the tolls it sought to charge ships traveling through the strait.

Iran’s request to collect those payments “is something that most Middle East folks don’t want to do and haven’t been doing,” Pickering Energy Partners founder and chief investment officer Dan Pickering said, adding that the Omani route “absolutely makes the most sense.”

But the full picture is complicated by ships deliberately going dark.

Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have chartered Very Large Crude Carriers, the world’s largest oil tankers, to move through Hormuz and transfer their cargo to customers’ tankers outside the danger zone in the Gulf of Oman, according to Lipow Oil Associates President Andy Lipow. To avoid Iranian attacks, some vessels have shut off their transponders for weeks, making them difficult for conventional tracking services to monitor.

The United States, however, has a significant military force in the area and is monitoring ships moving through the strait. U.S. estimates of oil traffic have consequently been substantially higher than some traditional tracking figures.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright said last week that combined oil transits through Hormuz and oil rerouted around the waterway were running at roughly 15 million barrels per day over the course of a week — far closer to the approximately 20 million barrels per day that moved through the area before the war.

The developments prompted President Trump on Monday to declare that the United States has “total control over the strait,” although neither Washington nor Tehran can presently claim complete control.

“If their goal is to be ‘in charge,’ then I’d say they were never completely in control to start with,” Pickering said. “It feels like their goal is deterrence, in order to be validated as in-control. I think they are still deterring.”

But if tanker traffic is now approaching the levels claimed by Washington, Iran’s ability to use the strait as leverage has diminished significantly compared with a month or two ago.

The shift comes as President Trump is also changing his approach to Iran itself.

For weeks, Trump publicly suggested that negotiations with Tehran were progressing, even as little visible progress was made. On Tuesday, however, Trump instructed senior administration officials to stop describing their contacts with Iran as negotiations, according to U.S. officials cited by CNN. White House officials have also told political allies that the strategy is moving away from “hammer Iran ASAP” toward trying to “strangle them” over time.

Trump then publicly declared that no diplomacy was underway.

“There are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Trump wrote on social media. “The Naval Blockade remains in full force and effect. The Hormuz Strait is open and operating. All water mines have been removed or detonated.”

Trump’s direction to his negotiating team — which includes Vice President JD Vance and envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner — came after what officials described as some “positive discussions” with Iran.

Just one day before Trump’s statement, Kushner had offered a more optimistic assessment. Speaking during a Middle East trip, he said U.S.-Iran conversations had been “probably more robust” than ever and described the exchanges as “very positive and active.”

Iranian officials have repeatedly denied that direct talks with Washington are taking place. Trump has expressed frustration over those denials, saying Iran was “playing games” and that its officials appeared eager to reach an agreement privately.

Still, administration officials said Trump is prepared to wait until Iran’s leadership demonstrates a fresh willingness to strike the kind of agreement he is seeking before formally reengaging.

At the same time, Trump has grown increasingly frustrated with negotiations involving Oman over management of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump lashed out at Oman this week and threatened to strike the Gulf nation despite its decades-long role as a strategic U.S. partner.

“I don’t think they behaved very well, but we’d handle them very easily — just like we do others,” Trump told reporters Monday.

Both Oman and Iran have coastlines along the strait, and regional officials have discussed an arrangement under which Oman would oversee vessels entering and leaving the Persian Gulf. But some White House officials are concerned that such an agreement could effectively give Iran influence over the waterway, while others believe Oman has favored Tehran during negotiations rather than serving as a neutral intermediary.

Trump and senior U.S. officials also oppose proposals allowing Iran to collect fees from ships passing through Hormuz. Trump has insisted that no tolls or other payments can be permitted, although some versions of a potential arrangement have included charges tied to environmental protection or security.

Trump instead wants an agreement that would fully restore the waterway to its prewar status, when unrestricted shipping moved through the international waterway. His administration has repeatedly argued that allowing any country to claim control over Hormuz would establish a dangerous precedent.

Complicating the situation further, Oman and Iran are holding talks aimed at restoring freedom of navigation through the strait without the United States — a development that has angered Trump. It remains unclear how those discussions could affect either traffic through Hormuz or the broader contest for control.

Meanwhile, Washington is preparing additional economic pressure. The United States is expected to impose sweeping new sanctions on Iran, potentially as soon as this week. Military officials, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, have also said American forces in the region are prepared to enforce the blockade of Iranian ports indefinitely.

Trump and his advisers believe the growing economic pressure will eventually force Tehran to accept his conditions for ending the war. Iranian officials, however, view Trump as facing political pressure of his own and believe the stalemate can work in their favor.

The prolonged military deployment is also weighing on the United States. Long deployments by American assets in the region — including the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier — have drawn scrutiny over the strain placed on ships and sailors. Trump has also acknowledged that U.S. inventories of some of its most advanced munitions are not at the levels he would prefer after six months of war.

Nevertheless, Trump has so far resisted Republican calls to find an off-ramp, maintaining that he does not face a time crunch.

On Tuesday, he underscored that position by posting a map of the Strait of Hormuz labeled “US Territory” — another indication that the administration has no immediate intention of reducing the American military presence in the region.

For now, the central contradiction remains: Iran continues attacking vessels and retains the ability to disrupt traffic, while the United States cannot claim complete control of the waterway. But with ships increasingly moving through the Omani route, oil flows recovering toward prewar levels and Tehran struggling to impose its preferred shipping rules and fees, the balance in the Strait of Hormuz appears to have moved substantially away from Iran.

(YWN World Headquarters – NYC)