Iran appears to be losing at least some of its grip over the Strait of Hormuz, with more than 80% of ships transiting the strategic waterway over the past two weeks using an Omani shipping lane disputed by Tehran, according to data from tracking firm Kpler.

The dramatic shift comes after virtually no traffic used the Omani route about a month ago. The lane, which is recognized by the United Nations, is operating under the protection of the U.S. Navy despite Iranian objections.

The development also follows the expiration of understandings between Washington and Tehran. Despite the agreement lapsing, Iran has reportedly been unable to resume collecting fees from ships transiting the area after successfully extracting payments during the spring, according to CNN.

Meanwhile, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have begun chartering massive tankers to transport oil out of the Persian Gulf before transferring it to other vessels in the safer waters of the Gulf of Oman. Some vessels have reportedly concealed their locations by switching off tracking equipment for weeks at a time.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said combined oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and alternative routes reached approximately 15 million barrels per day last week, approaching the pre-war average of roughly 20 million barrels per day.

President Donald Trump went further on Monday, declaring that the United States has “complete control of the strait.”

Analysts, however, say the situation remains more complicated. Iran continues carrying out attacks and retains some ability to deter shipping, making it difficult to conclude that Washington has exclusive control of the strategic waterway.

“It looks like Iran has lost at least partial control of the strait,” said Homayoun Falakshahi, Kpler’s head of crude oil analysis. Oil industry executive Dan Pickering said Tehran’s broader objective is deterrence in an effort to maintain legitimacy.

At the same time, Oman and Iran are reportedly engaged in diplomatic talks aimed at restoring freedom of navigation through the strait without American involvement — an initiative that has drawn opposition from the Trump administration.

(YWN World Headquarters – NYC)