Tzuriel Sharon, CEO and owner of the Direct Polls polling firm, spoke with Kol Chai following the poll that gave Ofer Winter’s new Amcha Yisrael party eight seats.

Sharon said the poll began on the evening Winter launched his party and continued into the following day because of the surprising results and the need to verify them.

“It was a very unusual poll, relatively speaking, compared with the polls we conduct every week,” he said.

Sharon then broke down where Winter’s eight seats are coming from.

“Six and a half of those eight seats come from the right-wing bloc,” he said. According to Sharon, nearly four and a half seats come from Likud, about half a seat from Shas, and another seat from Otzma Yehudit and the Religious Zionist Party.

Another seat and a half comes from so-called “third bloc parties”—voters for Gilad Erdan, Yuli Edelstein, Chili Tropper and Yoaz Hendel. Roughly another half-seat comes primarily at the expense of Avigdor Liberman.

Despite Winter drawing most of his support from existing right-wing parties, Sharon said his entry into the race actually strengthens the right-wing bloc overall, raising it from 58 to 59 seats.

“You can even begin to imagine getting back to a number starting with six,” he said cautiously, referring to the possibility of the bloc returning to 60 seats or more.

However, Sharon warned that it is far too early to know whether Winter will be able to maintain his current strength.

“For Winter, it’s either a citation for excellence or a failing grade,” he said, recalling previous parties that debuted strongly in the polls only to collapse by Election Day. The New Right, he noted, once opened with 14 seats in the polls before ultimately failing to cross the electoral threshold, while Gideon Sa’ar’s New Hope began with 22 seats and finished with just six.

Sharon added that Betzalel Smotrich is now at greater risk and argued that Likud’s attacks on Winter over the past week were a mistake.

“Those attacks only strengthened him,” he said.

Sharon also addressed Shas, which received just seven seats in the poll, saying the result points to a “real problem” for the party as it battles to hold on to its voter base, particularly traditional voters.

“Shas has a very serious problem among the traditional electorate,” he said, estimating that those voters represent a pool of three to four seats out of the roughly 11 seats potentially available to the party.

According to Sharon, Likud, Itamar Ben Gvir and now Winter are all competing for those voters, with Winter taking roughly half a seat from Shas in the latest poll.

Sharon noted that Shas has already launched a campaign aimed, among other things, at “restoring the sense of pride” among its voters.

Regarding Naftali Bennett, Sharon said the former prime minister has managed to halt his decline over the past two or three weeks.

“Bennett changed direction, changed his campaign,” Sharon said. After falling to seven seats in Direct Polls surveys, Bennett climbed back to nine before stabilizing at eight. According to Sharon, Bennett has “managed to stop the bleeding” and stabilize his position.

By contrast, Sharon said Winter’s entry into the race has dealt a major blow to the smaller parties and efforts to establish a so-called “third bloc.”

“Yesterday, the person who finally crushed that whole development was Winter,” he said. “There is no Erdan event.”

According to Sharon, the possibility of Benny Gantz consolidating that bloc around himself has also failed to materialize.

Toward the end of the interview, Sharon was asked about the significant gap between Direct Polls surveys, which show the right-wing bloc approaching 60 seats, and polls conducted for other Israeli media outlets that put the bloc considerably lower.

He declined to engage in a dispute with other pollsters.

“I don’t deal with comparisons between my polls and 11, 12, 13 or 14,” he said. “I deal strictly with what I see.”

Sharon also stressed that pollsters must approach their findings with humility.

“I’m not a Navi, nor do I claim to be,” he said, concluding that ultimately, “the public isn’t stupid,” and every voter will draw his own conclusions.

(YWN Israel Desk—Jerusalem)